2019 fearless forecast?

2019 may be the year of good breaks or breakthroughs.

Before all the fortune tellers and numerologists come out with their predictions and forecasts as well as best number and color of 2019, I might as well get a head start and share some information I have been gathering from “official sources” during unofficial encounters. First of all, it is better to end the year with hope and start the New Year with optimism.

According to one of the Titos of Metro Manila, it is almost certain that a Tax Amnesty for Estates will be declared in 2019. The amnesty provides an opportunity for families who have been unable to settle tax liabilities for family estates, particularly those with huge properties that have passed from one generation to the next and the next or grandparents, parents to current heirs as well as small property owners who just don’t have the cash to pay the accumulated penalties. If the DOF version of the amnesty is followed then it will be a one-time settlement and no longer separate taxes for every generational transfer. While the DOF is still sorting things out with the concerned agencies, may I suggest to Secretary Sonny Dominguez and his team to also study the possibility of making a provision that allows families to pay the estate tax or property tax on installment basis because some families who’ve shared their predicament with me, point out that while their grandparents may have been rich, their parents were not so fortunate and they in turn were left with huge properties but hardly any cash to cover tax liabilities.

Many such property owners or heirs now own high value properties but are stuck with a liability and a burden that often end up being more of a curse than a blessing. I had once suggested to a BIR commissioner that the BIR should be more compassionate and proactive by seeking out Congress and officials of the DOF to create such relief measures for families who have lost the breadwinner and don’t even have enough “bread” to pay taxes. In fact no one seems to be willing to recognize a similar problem where banks automatically freeze accounts so family members can’t “raid” or empty accounts when the account holder dies. First of all, the BIR or DOF can just as easily adjust their instruction to limit withdrawals to 25 or 50 percent of content. With the level of automation today, all banks have daily records of transactions and deposits. Even if the heirs raid the account, the banks can just as easily tell the BIR. The current system of freezing accounts is simply too harsh and offensive for grieving families who have to pay immediate expenses from hospital bills and funeral services. Lets all pray for DOF officials so compassion and strategy can come into play.

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If you are engaged in importation of goods and materials and do business with the Bureau of Customs, the good news is that Finance Secretary Sonny Dominguez and Bureau of Customs Commissioner Rey Leonardo Guerrero have quietly been studying and working toward the eventual re-opening of the “GREEN LANE” of the BOC. Sources indicate that the present formula is to allow shipments from low-risk ports of origin or countries that have little or no history as origins of illegal drugs.

Second to that, the products being shipped would similarly be those that are not used to hide or contain drugs such as electrical components or products that are very transparent to X-Ray machines.

Third, the shippers or consignees or companies are registered in eco-zones or are established shippers or corporations and not individuals. Of course there is the likelihood that if the “GREEN LANE” opens there may be additional charges connected to its use, that for many importers would be a small price to pay in order to fast track importation and certainly a plus point for the government’s program for “Ease of Doing Business.” If all goes well, my prediction is that the “GREEN LANE” will lift its gates by mid-March.

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For those of you who will be “First-time Registrants” in order to open a business, someone I met at the BIR shared their plan to simplify registration and do it in one day. Yes, ONE day. The plan is for the BIR to take in the application, provide official receipts and books of accounts and receive payment for registration and materials all at One Window in One Day. In fact the people working on the project have crafted some “hugot lines” such as “Isang Araw – Walang BIR-O” where the O is actually a smiley. According to people who’ve registered businesses in the past, the old system usually takes from 7 to 14 days. If the BIR can pull this off, I think even President Duterte will cite the accomplishment in his State of the Nation Address. As for timetables, I’m speculating that the One Window-One Day will happen by March at the latest.

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Depending on whose side you’re on or whom among the President’s men you like, you will either find the first quarter of 2019 positive or disappointing. I heard that a Cabinet member I actually like and support has started undergoing the clearance process, which, according to observers is like getting clearance in school before graduation. The official has taken quite a beating in the last quarter and did not get the support or encouragement from his colleagues.

On the other hand another Cabinet secretary is under extreme pressure to stand and deliver the projects that are under his department. The poor official works an average of 14/7 or 14 hours 7 days a week pushing his equally harassed team of Usecs and Asecs but there is simply no rushing projects that are legally and technically complex. But on the other hand, the public and the President may be running short on patience.

With the Duterte administration reaching its mid term residency, expect to see changes at the level of ASEC or Assistant Secretary particularly in regulatory bodies. This is quite historical where political appointees either play musical chairs or asked to leave or transfer and let the other team members step in. That’s life in the biggest employment agency of the Philippines! Keep on Praying.

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