Let’s see… the Chinese will be buying more coconuts and frozen fruits from the Philippines, providing more support for infrastructure projects, and donating 10,000 tons of rice to victims of Typhoon Ompong. What’s not to like in these deals?
As for the South China Sea, which Beijing is claiming almost in its entirety, the two countries have “a lot of common interests” in the area. “Contentious issues” will be managed through “friendly consultations” with the rest of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and will be based on consensus, Chinese President Xi Jinping said as he arrived in Manila yesterday. He reiterated the three-year timetable for coming up with a code of conduct in the South China Sea.
In his first state visit here, Xi, who may be in power for life, quoted Philippine national hero Jose Rizal and reminded a fellow developing country that the world has become multipolar and the global economy more integrated.
The cooperative agreements forged so far are, to borrow a favorite phrase of the Chinese, “win-win” deals. Bilateral ties are built on solid ground, and Xi’s messages strike all the right notes in bilateral ties. The friendship should come naturally, since the two countries share deep historical and cultural ties that date back centuries before Uncle Sam arrived and gave us English, Hollywood and corned beef.
But perhaps partly because of the language barrier, the visit isn’t coming off quite like a full-throttle charm offensive.
Xi has waded into Asia’s most rambunctious democracy, where the cuddly toon Winnie the Pooh and the movie “Christopher Robin” cannot be banned (unless they are used for porn, and even then the pirated versions will still circulate in flea markets and city sidewalks).
Government officials have had to issue public statements, reassuring critics that all Chinese loans and official development assistance will be carefully scrutinized to prevent the Philippines from falling into a “debt trap.”
To Malacañang’s dismay, pollster Social Weather Stations also released its latest survey, in time for Xi’s visit, showing 84 percent public disapproval of the Duterte administration’s “inaction” in the maritime dispute with China.
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Still, President Xi’s visit should go a long way in improving bilateral relations. At the very least, he will have a personal feel of public sentiment in this country about the contentious issues in bilateral ties.
It’s good to know that Xi is pushing for a rules-based global economy as he locks horns with US President Donald Trump over trade practices.
This should make it easier for Beijing to sell to its people the idea of a rules-based approach to maritime disputes.
In their heart of hearts, leaders of the Communist Party of China probably already acknowledge this. But there’s a nationalist Chinese constituency that must be persuaded that it is in their country’s interest to show adherence to international rules, such as the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
UNCLOS is the basis for the 2016 ruling of the UN-backed Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague. The landmark ruling not only granted the petition of the Philippines in seeking arbitration – a definition of the country’s maritime entitlements in the South China Sea – but also issued a ruling that Manila didn’t seek (although welcomed by Filipinos): it invalidated China’s so-called nine-dash-line territorial claim over nearly all of the South China Sea.
Not surprisingly, Beijing announced it was rejecting the ruling. This was in sharp contrast to the reaction of India when the PAC ruled against the sub-continent in its maritime dispute with Bangladesh in the Bay of Bengal in 2014. New Delhi quickly announced that it was bowing to the arbitral court.
Beijing, however, must worry not just about its dispute with the Philippines being settled by the PAC, but also the impact of the ruling on its disputes with other neighbors notably Japan and Vietnam.
The Chinese, as everyone knows, also give much weight to face. No one likes having salt rubbed on a wound. Especially on the global stage. China must show that it hasn’t been bloodied by what the world sees as its colossal drubbing before an international court.
Especially because the “little” country that initiated the arbitration is seen by the Chinese to be backed by the United States. When Chinese officials grouse that it’s the Philippines that is in fact “bullying” China in disputed waters rather than the other way around, they are seeing their principal rival Uncle Sam standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Juan and Juana de la Cruz.
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It’s uncertain if President Duterte’s openly expressed dislike for the US and announced “pivot” to China have persuaded Beijing that the Philippines is turning its back on its treaty ally. After all, Duterte has also openly expressed his admiration for Donald Trump, the billionaire US president with a lip like him and all the gorgeous women. And even Duterte’s own beloved military officials, who must contend with Chinese forces in the South China Sea, appear unenthusiastic about the touted “powerful alliance” with Beijing.
A common comment: Uncle Sam is returning the Balangiga Bells to Eastern Samar. Will China return Panganiban or Mischief Reef to the Philippines and leave Scarborough Shoal?
Xi isn’t going to announce the withdrawal of his troops any time soon from Mischief Reef off Palawan. But in his two-day state visit in Manila, he is being closely watched for the slightest hint that Duterte’s pivot to Beijing is paying off for the Philippines. Not only in disputed waters, but in terms of the delivery of economic and investment pledges made in the past.
For all their muscle flexing in disputed waters, the Chinese understand the dividends of peace. Their country has prospered dramatically during four decades of peace in a dynamic region.
Duterte’s stance in the maritime dispute – which he calls an independent foreign policy, and which critics describe as a policy of capitulation or surrender worthy of impeachment – has allowed China to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat following the PCA ruling.
If only for this, Duterte should be given honorary Chinese citizenship upon his retirement from the presidency.
For sure, Duterte has won over the Chinese and made it easier for him to bring up the arbitral ruling with Beijing in the future, as he has promised he would do.
Filipinos will be holding him to his promise. Perhaps he can deliver that “win-win” solution for both countries.