Russia-US relations: What will it be like under Trump?

In less than two weeks, Donald John Trump will be sworn in as the 45th president of the United States, marking what could be a new era in American politics. But just what this “Trump era” would usher in remains to be seen, considering the US president-elect’s unconventional run and what his chief adviser Kellyanne Conway had described as an untraditional and unpredictable “X-factor.”

Even before he formally takes over, Trump appears to be facing a “delicate” situation following the release of a declassified report from the office of the Director of National Intelligence saying that Russian operatives conducted a massive operation to influence the US presidential elections, “undermine public faith in the US democratic process, denigrate Secretary Clinton and harm her electability and potential presidency.” The report also made an assessment that Russian president Vladimir Putin and his government had “a clear preference for president-elect Trump.”

Prior to his private briefing at Trump Tower by US intel officials, Trump had dismissed the Russian hacking allegations as nothing but a “political witch hunt,” suggesting that Washington’s absorption (some say obsession) regarding the allegations is driven by the bitterness of his political rivals and their inability to get over the fact that he won the presidential elections.

Democrats have dismissed accusations that the report was politically motivated, saying it was a “search for truth.” Intelligence officials led by National Intelligence director James Clapper expressed alarm that Trump’s comments could undermine public faith and confidence in their work.

While calling the private briefing constructive and praising the intel officials who conducted the briefing – namely Clapper, CIA Director John Brennan and FBI Director James Comey – while acknowledging the possibility that several targets including the Democratic National Committee may have been cyber attacked, Trump stressed that the hacking had no effect whatsoever on the outcome of the elections.

Some also give credence to WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange’s assertions that Russia was not the source of the Democratic Party emails that his group leaked before the elections, suggesting that Democrats set themselves up as targets for using passwords like “p@ssword” which any 14-year-old can easily hack.

Trump supporters also claim that the declassified report, as well as the recent moves of outgoing President Barack Obama – primarily the expulsion of 35 Russian diplomats from the US and the closure of two Russian facilities in Maryland and New York – were meant to “box in” the president-elect, complicate the relations between Russia and the US, and cast aspersions on  the legitimacy of Trump’s electoral win.

In fact, a Russian official described the expulsion of the Russians as Obama’s “poisoned gift to Trump” who has displayed friendliness with Putin and Russia. Observers also note that it would be quite tricky for Trump to just dismiss the “unanimous and explicit findings” of US intelligence agencies that he will be overseeing, with others also saying that the ball will soon be in Trump’s court with regard to the situation regarding Russia.

Analysts say that Putin’s refusal to engage in a political tit-for-tat with Obama – dismissing the suggestion of his foreign minister Sergey Lavrov to also expel American diplomats from Moscow – show that the Russian president is hoping for a reset of US-Russia relations once Trump takes charge.  In a statement, Putin expressed hope of working together for “removing Russian-American relations from their crisis state.”

Putin had not been shy about his preference for Trump, remarking during the US campaign period that they prefer a candidate who would be good for Russia – and obviously, it was not Hillary Clinton. Reports claim that members of the State Duma (the lower house of the Russian Federal Assembly) broke out in great applause when news of Trump’s victory reached them.

Russians are optimistic that a Trump presidency will help patch up relations and perhaps result in the lifting of sanctions that had affected their economy, counting on the American president-elect’s statements that he was ready to restore relations with the traditional rival of the US.

Perceptions that Trump is leaning toward friendlier relations with Russia were boosted with the nomination of ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson as Secretary of State. Tillerson was personally awarded the Russian Order of Friendship by Vladimir Putin in 2013 after signing an agreement with Rosneft, a state-owned oil company whose chief is said to be a Putin loyalist.

In any case, Trump’s willingness to work with Putin should not really come as a surprise since in his victory speech where he promised to double growth and make the US the strongest economy anywhere in the world, he also expressed willingness to “get along with all other nations willing to get along with us… We expect to have great, great relationships.”

Just like Trump, President Rodrigo Duterte has indicated willingness to explore closer relations with Russia, clearly demonstrated during the recent 5-day goodwill visit of Russian Navy vessels. “We welcome our Russian friends. Anytime you want to dock here for anything, for play, for replenishing supplies or maybe (become) our ally to protect us,” President Duterte said during his tour of the anti-submarine destroyer Admiral Tributs.

Russian Ambassador Igor Khovaev, who accompanied the president aboard the Russian Navy warship, expressed his country’s willingness to promote bilateral cooperation and dialogue with the Philippines in all possible fields such as trade and investments, and more especially so on pressing international problems like terrorist extremism, piracy, illegal drugs and other threats to security and sustainable development. As Ambassador Khovaev pointed out, the Philippines can “diversify” and have more foreign friends – while keeping old traditional allies like the United States.

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