Let me in, P-Noy tells new Pacific grouping

He’s sore at not being invited into the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which is exclusively for avowed reformists.

Readers vastly differed in reacting to my piece last Wed., “US reneged before on Mutual Defense.” To Spain, America, and consequently the Philippines’ exercise of territorial jurisdiction over Scarborough Shoal (Bajo de Masinloc), these were among the comments:

Macario Roja, Manila: “In contrast to the historical facts and records that Dr. Jay Batongbacal cited, China claims Scarborough as ‘Huangyan Island’ via an imagined exploration in the 13th century under the Yuan Dynasty (Mongol rule). Ancient maps of China during that and subsequent periods do not show any ‘Huangyan,’ although one includes an unnamed land mass that looks like the Philippines’ larger Mindoro Island. Kudos to Justice Antonio Carpio for that cartographic  research. Although Manila controlled Scarborough, it allowed freedom of navigation in the surrounding waters and enforced marine conservation under UNCLOS. After grabbing it in 2012, Beijing has barred any commercial sail-by and lets Hainanese fishers ravage the corals, giant clams, and other protected species – against UNCLOS.”

Mario E. Valderrama, Makati City: “I carefully went through your piece, trying to find out if the Philippines ever made a claim of ownership over Scarborough and Mischief Reef. The nearest I got is that the Philippines would want to claim them and that the US would most likely not object to it. Perhaps Dr. Batongbacal can shed more light on this, but please no sophistry about implied claims that were not publicly announced. Predictions are that the arbitral tribunal would declare Scarborough is within the Philippine EEZ and that Mischief is within its continental shelf. Those projected declarations are, however, UNCLOS-based and not on ‘peaceful, uninterrupted and open possession for a certain period in the concept of an owner.’ And before we rejoice, while it may be that the substance is in favor of the Philippines, still it is the correct procedure that will open the door for the substance to come in. Along that line, according to Gary B. Born (International Arbitration: Law and Practice 443 citing M. Shaw, International Law 957 5th ed. 2003): ‘An award may, however, be considered a nullity under certain circumstances.’ So the preliminary award on jurisdiction and the arbitrators themselves should be able to withstand scrutiny. Again quoting Born: ‘Claims that an award is a nullity will generally be asserted by a state after it refuses to comply with the award.’

My article was about America’s neutrality when China invaded Scarborough, despite the  RP-US Mutual Defense Treaty and after several times asserting Philippine territorial rights over the shoal. The consequent Philippine arbitration under UNCLOS is not about territorial but maritime rights, the recent preliminary award on jurisdiction of which I will write about soon. – JB

Jakob Walland: “Interesting article you wrote. You failed to mention, however, that the Philippines kicked out the US (forces) from their bases in 1991, although they wanted to stay. If there still were a US base in Subic today, the Chinese would not have dared invade the reefs. Raise a statue in Subic of those ‘12 brave men’ (senators who voted to expel the bases), some of them convicted of plunder. There is no doubt in your mind that US should return and risk it all to save you when you are in trouble or need. The US will not do that and the Chinese will stay.”

Franco Urlanda, Davao City: “That the US is unreliable in mutual defense only means that the Philippines must strike out on its own – diplomatically and militarily. We cannot, should not remain weak forever. All America will do ‘to help’ is sell us two more decommissioned Coast Guard cutters, as Barack Obama offered in the sidelines of APEC-2015 – for conversion into pretentious naval warships.”

Cherry Peung, Cebu City: “It is not too late to press the Reset button and start afresh in our relations with China. Let us jointly use whatever maritime resources are possible, under brisker trade and investment exchanges. Postpone the territorial and maritime disputes for a later time, when they may melt on their own. Even their present jingoist leaders are bound to lose their grip on power, for their and our good. You pointed out an important observation among Southeast Asians, that ‘America is fickle, while China will always be next door.’”

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The Philippines has been left out of the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) that supposedly would expand trade in Asia-Pacific. This is in spite of President Noynoy Aquino being an obedient US pal. So he made it known during APEC-2015 last week that he is sore. The TPP is by invitation only, to economies committed to reform, and to setting labor and environment standards. “If the whole idea is to broaden trade,” P-Noy told a business forum, “making it exclusive actually defeats the whole purpose of why you enter into all of these agreements.” US President Barack Obama should help get Manila invited, he said.

Those were his same words to interviewer Steve Forbes Jr. last month for the Forbes Magazine on the world’s powerful and rich. Reports abounded then that the TPP bypassed the Philippines due to economic restrictions in its Constitution. Those include bars to foreign investment in schools and media, and limits to only 40-percent equity in utilities and 30-percent in, of all things, advertising. That P-Noy rejects congressional repeal of those provisos, first upheld by his late President-mother Cory Aquino, is said to be the main TPP turnoff with the Philippines.

But then, P-Noy must have been told, look at the four ASEAN neighbor-invitees Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia, and Vietnam. Sure, along with the US, Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Mexico, Chile, and Peru, they in the TPP make up 40 percent of global trade. Yet Singapore despite its commercial might has a population so small compared to the Philippines, and Brunei despite its vast oil resources is totally owned by the Sultan. Malaysia’s long reigning UMNO party has a Bumiputra “Malay-first” policy that discriminates against Chinese and Indians. Communists rule Vietnam and, while veering closer to the US because alienated by China, is still a centrally planned instead of a market economy. (Past weeks saw US and European pharmaceutical firms feuding with state regulators over formula milk prices, among others.) If the US can overlook such flaws, then it can excuse Philippine economic restrictions in the fundamental law, P-Noy must have been led to think.

Perhaps there are other factors. Trade partners look for consistency in economic policies, ease in doing business, lifting of trade barriers, and level playing field in contracting. In all those the Philippines flunks. Economic policies change with the weather: a priority like the upgrade of Clark Air Base, as alternative to the congested Manila twin, can be delisted due to mere unacceptability of its name, Diosdado Macapagal International Airport to the P-Noy tenure. The Philippines dropped six notches in the latest UN rating of facility of business. Two multibillion-peso works have been awarded to best bidders – to relocate the National Orthopedic Hospital and erect a new passenger terminal at the Cebu International Airport – but cannot commence two years hence because the government overlooked right-of-way issues as usual. The ruling Liberal Party plays favorites in granting deals to conglomerates. Worst of them was the payment of P1.85 billion so far for the MRT-3 commuter rail maintenance to a fledgling, undercapitalized firm owned by an LP fundraiser. Another P4.25 billion is to be granted, with the conclusion of secret negotiations with a new front company of that influential LP boy. Not to forget, P-Noy’s LP-mates have imported rice from Vietnam at multibillion-peso overprice too.

Wanting to have his cake and eat it too, P-Noy refuses to reform the economy despite his supposed “Daang Matuwid (Straight Path),” yet wants in on a new regional trade grouping that is exclusive to supposed reformists. Perhaps he should concentrate instead on meeting his commitments to ASEAN Economic Integration by yearend, and fortifying Filipino partners who may be hurt by it.

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