The importance and advantages of being a Mar Roxas
Now that the lines are drawn, now that the die is cast, we can rightly say that, at this point in time, the candidate to beat is no longer Grace Poe, much less Jojo Binay. All the cards are now in the hands of Manuel "Mar" Araneta Roxas II.
First and foremost, he is the chosen heir apparent of the incumbent president, who controls the ruling party, who has exclusive and primordial access to the government resources and machinery, and who is the titular head of the administration coalition. All things being equal, Mar has the advantages and he is now the man to beat. If he plays his cards well, Mar will be it in 2016. Mark my words.
Grace has a big legal problem pending before the Supreme Court. There is a very strong possibility that Poe will be disqualified by the High Court. Binay is hounded by a litany of Ombudsman and Sandiganbayan cases. He may be suspended from the vice presidency even before the May 2016 presidential polls. Mar is clean. He has no case to distract his attention from the campaign. He has the support of majority of the country's provincial governors as well as city and town mayors. This is not to mention the all-out support of administration senators and representatives. Both Poe and Binay benefitted from the administration, and then abandoned it in the last minute to pursue their own selfish agenda.
We should not forget that Mar Roxas is being supported by the top three public officials of the land who, by themselves, have their own respective strong and large followings. They are the president himself, the Senate President Franklin Drilon, who is now the uncontested kingpin of the Ilonggo region, the whole island of Panay which includes Iloilo, Capiz, Aklan, Antique, Guimaras and the neighboring Negros Occidental and Negros Oriental that he unified into one compact Negros Island Region. Then, we have Speaker Feliciano Belmonte Jr., a low-profile but very influential political kingpin in Metro Manila. Not to forget Deputy Speaker Boyet Gonzales, and the other strong pillars of the coalition.
With the presidential backing up, Mar Roxas will definitely get to be supported by all the Cabinet members who are all political appointees. Career public officials and personnel are not supposed to be partisan but that is only a theory. Down there where the rubber hits the road, so to speak, agencies are inclined to follow their respective leaders. Mar will have the distinct advantage. He had the DILG regional offices and the national police loyal to him.
Grace Poe is now being seen as an ingrate to the PNoy group. She rode over the administration party to top the last senatorial contest. She was adopted by the LP, the party that she now "betrays." The same is true with VP Binay who had his cake and ate it too.
Here in Cebu, our most pessimistic prediction is that Mar Roxas will get no less than 60% of the votes. The rest will be split by Grace Poe and Binay. Mind you, Binay might even get more votes than Poe. FPJ never had a good voting record among the Cebuanos. Our most optimistic projection is that Roxas will get more than 70% of the Cebuano voting bloc. The LP is now stronger in our province. Many of the mayors have gradually joined Governor Junjun Davide and the Vice Governor. The Gullases are with Mar. I do not know how the Garcias and other opposition leaders can change the Cebu political landscape being dominated by the LP.
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