Black swan

With only two weeks to go before the filing of certificates of candidacy, party slates are being firmed up and we now have three sure contenders for the presidency.

I know I’m not the only one still hoping for a black swan in the presidential race – an unforeseen event with the game-changing impact of President Cory’s death on the 2010 elections.

At this point we’re stuck with the three declared aspirants. We may just have to settle for what we think the country most urgently needs at this point in our national development, and who among the three can best implement what must be done to meet that need.

The three are statistically tied in terms of voter preference, according to the two major pollsters. President Aquino’s endorsement has led to a dramatic surge in the numbers of Liberal Party (LP) standard bearer Mar Roxas, but he is sharing the daang matuwid vote with the frontrunner, Sen. Grace Poe, who has said no one has a monopoly of the straight path.

In her public speeches, Poe has impressed businessmen, civil society and other sectors. Her steering of the Senate probe on the Mamasapano raid also earned her a lot of support.

Pinoys like sad stories, and in our country, being a foundling is also an asset in getting votes. Poe is also basking in the edge typically enjoyed by newbies in Philippine politics. Pinoys like personalities with famous surnames or from TV and the movies whose backgrounds are little known. We saw this in the case of GMA in her rise from an obscure post in the trade department to the Senate, the vice presidency and then to Malacañang.

With all the scrutiny Poe is now facing, she may not find the same level of popularity after six years, so it’s understandable that she will go for the presidency now. As Shakespeare wrote, “There is a tide in the affairs of men…”

Sen. Miriam Defensor Santiago, who enjoyed immense popularity when she sought the presidency in 1992, told journalists years later, when asked if she would run for the top post again, “My time has come and gone.”

If Davao Mayor Rodrigo Duterte decides to run for president, he is also likely to further eat into the anti-corruption vote. And he could see his numbers rise if Poe is disqualified. There’s a group that’s said to be working feverishly for the disqualification, and the group can be lethally efficient. It’s the same group widely suspected to have applied similar methods to pull down other aspirants for key posts since previous elections.

The loud buzz from the group is that apart from her citizenship, paternity and residency issues, Poe should brace for questions on the citizenship and loyalties of her husband and children.

She took a hit when she bared a side that smacks of readiness to engage in transactional politics, when she defended the Iglesia ni Cristo in paralyzing EDSA traffic, to the inconvenience of millions.

Roxas won that round – the only one of the three aspirants to give the correct comments on a public nuisance. But the LP couldn’t afford to crow about it. The party still needs the Iglesia vote, if not for its standard bearer, then for the many other LP candidates nationwide.

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Vice President Jejomar Binay peaked first and inevitably got pulled down first. He has yet to overcome his image as a corrupt dynast, effectively reinforced by the Senate inquiry that is setting a precedent in the use of the chamber as a political weapon. He and his wife and son could still end up in jail for corruption.

Like former Presidents Joseph Estrada and Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo when they were accused of plunder, however, the surveys even amid the Senate inquiries show Binay retaining a solid support base of between 20 to 30 percent.

It may help if fewer Binays seek elective positions in 2016. The VP is also touting his executive skills and how Makati has developed under his watch. Big business may dispute this, but it cannot be completely dismissed by the LP because there are people who agree when the Binay camp sniffs that Roxas’ record in the executive department is unblemished by accomplishments.

As the anointed successor of P-Noy, Roxas can rightfully claim to be the candidate who will continue the policies of daang matuwid. But he will also be the one to get the blame for its failures and its own corruption scandals, particularly in the department that he used to head, transportation and communications. During the campaign, Roxas may have to answer an emerging FAQ: If he wins, will he retain LP acting president Joseph Emilio Abaya in the DOTC together with the team running (to the ground) the Metro Rail Transit?

And if Binay must fend off accusations of corruption, Roxas must overcome his teka-teka image. There are debates on which is more fatal for Pinoys at this stage in our national life.

The aspirants’ running mates are of course revealing. Poe suffers from her choice, who is seen to be her principal political mentor. Sen. Francis Escudero’s constant presence by Poe’s side is a reminder that the same groups and parties, the same faces and families, the same campaign financiers are the principal players behind every presidential race in this country, and they will continue influencing national affairs, regardless of who wins.

When candidates are asked why they have to engage in transactional politics, the common answer is that they have to win first. This kind of reasoning for political expediency easily morphs into the next stage in case of victory: they still have to deal with the supporters and special interest groups for the rest of their term.

Which is why hope springs eternal for a black swan.

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CORRECTION: What Czech Ambassador Jaroslav Olsa Jr. launched on Sept. 16 at the Mall of Asia were the Filipino translations of two books – “Sa Praga,” a selection of the best poems of Czech Nobel laureate Jaroslav Seifert, and “Ang Metamorposis” by renowned Prague native Franz Kafka. It was not a special edition of the Czech literary monthly PLAV, as I wrote. My apologies.

The launch was a collaboration between the Czech embassy and the Komisyon sa Wikang Pilipino.