Media-driven survey results

The latest surveys of both Social Weather Stations (SWS) and Pulse Asia have once again validated the results of each other’s pre-polls voters’ opinion preference of candidates in next year’s presidential elections. The difference, however, of the SWS and Pulse results for the third quarter was the timeframes or periods when the surveys were done.

The third quarter survey of SWS was conducted from Sept. 2 to 5 while Pulse did theirs from Sept. 8 to 14. But in both surveys, three common names emerged anew as the top choices in the presidential derby.

The results of the two different surveys showed Sen. Grace Poe maintained her previous quarter’s standing as the top choice among the presidential aspirants. The second and third rank interchangeably showed either Vice President Jejomar Binay or ex-Department of the Interior and Local Government Secretary Mar Roxas II.

In our Kapihan sa Manila Bay breakfast at Luneta Hotel last Wednesday, Pulse Asia executive director Ana Maria Tabunda explained it is the practice of their opinion polling firm to conduct the third quarter survey during the period close to the filing of certificates of candidacy. The Commission on Elections (Comelec) set the filing period from Oct. 12 to 16.

Tabunda disclosed that Pulse Asia will release the results of their regular third quarter survey results this week, including the regular Ulat sa Bayan on the performance rating of President Aquino and other national government officials.

So the forthcoming Pulse Asia survey is different from the ABS-CBN-commissioned survey by Pulse that was officially released to the public last Thursday night by the Lopez-owned TV network.

This was the same situation that triggered the confusion earlier on the SWS survey in which the polling firm was questioned over the procedure of picking top three presidential candidates for the respondent’s choice.

As subsequently explained, the SWS rephrased its survey question to differentiate it from the regular BusinessWorld-commissioned SWS survey in which the names of presidential candidates were supplied from which the respondents will choose only one preferred candidate. In this way, the SWS can do their own independent survey but they will not use the same question “franchised” by the BusinessWorld-SWS survey.

In the particular ABS-CBN-commissioned Pulse Asia survey, it was done from Aug. 27 to Sept. 3. A total of 1,200 respondents were asked: “Of the people on this list, whom would you vote for as President of the Philippines if the 2016 elections were held today and they were candidates. You may mention others not included in this list.”

Tabunda defended anew the survey’s using population sample size of 1,200 respondents out of more than 62 million registered voters in the Philippines. “As long as sampling is random, and representative of population, more or less, the results are reliable.”

Around 27 percent replied they would vote for Poe; 21 percent said they would vote for Binay; and 18 percent said they would vote for Mar, if elections were held then. With plus or minus 3 percent margin of error, Roxas, who was endorsed by President Aquino last July 31, was statistically tied with Vice President Binay.

On a review of previous survey results, Poe and Binay actually posted a loss of 3 basis points and 1 basis point, respectively, while Roxas posted a gain of 8 basis points, when compared to the second quarter Pulse Asia survey done in June this year.

Pulse Asia conducted the survey at the height of the 5-day Iglesia ni Cristo protest, during which Poe drew criticism for defending the influential religious sect known for supporting candidates through bloc voting. Notably, the survey was also conducted several days before Poe declared her candidacy in the 2016 elections.

Quoting Tabunda, ABS-CBN reported President Aquino’s endorsement of Roxas helped boost the latest survey ranking of the administration-backed presidential bet. “But some of the increase in voter preference for Sec. Roxas may probably be attributed to Mar himself. Voter preference for him increased significantly in the Visayas,” Tabunda pointed out.

For the vice presidential race, Poe was also on top but is considered to be statistically tied with her running mate, Senator Francis Escudero, 26% to 25%. Senators Alan Peter Cayetano and Bongbong Marcos followed but with single-digit scores. Marcos is rumored to be Binay’s running mate. Roxas’ preferred running mate, Camarines Sur Rep. Leni Robredo, got 2% support.

In our Kapihan sa Manila Bay last week, Tabunda told us Pulse Asia crafts its own question by giving respondents a specific list of twelve names to pick their preferred presidential candidate. She said the names of the candidates may or may not be a subscriber of Pulse Asia but they are the ones that supply the list where the respondents can choose from.

Contrary to public knowledge, I learned from Tabunda that Pulse Asia charges their client a minimum of P200,000 to as much as P250,000 to conduct a survey consisting of as many as three questions.   

Tabunda intimated to us that Pulse Asia would like to seek guidance from new Comelec chairman Andres Bautista on how the poll body would implement the Supreme Court ruling (SC) on requiring survey firms to divulge their subscriber/s whenever they release survey results during the 90-day campaign period. The SC ruling, as upheld with finality in the past, is applicable in next year’s elections.

At the outset, the Comelec chairman told me he would comply with what the country’s laws require the poll body to implement and this SC ruling is now part of Philippine laws.

 Tabunda conceded pre-polls surveys on candidates are largely influenced by people, places and events as reported in media during the survey period. Tabunda cited television as the most influential media that dictates the shape of survey results.

This includes not only those aired on TV as news reports but also ads and info-mercials of certain politicians.

She strongly doubts though the supposed growth of social media in influencing voters’ preference. While surveys may be media-driven, the Pulse Asia executive believes social media in the country does not have as wide a reach as TV.

Thus, we are bombarded with so much pre-campaign TV ads of many of these aspirants in the coming May, 2106 elections.