Independent candidates do not win presidential elections
Granting without admitting that Grace Poe is the best among the three leading candidates, which includes Mar Roxas, Jojo Binay, and Grace, it does not follow that the best candidate always wins. In fact, they always lose if they run as independent. This is a matter of historical pattern, and those who intentionally ignore history are bound to repeat it. We have had very good independent candidates like the great Claro M Recto. He had vision. He had principles. He had the qualifications. He lost to lesser mortals. The same happened to the excellent parliamentarian, declaimer, orator, and debater, Raul Manglapus in the sixties and early seventies. He lost too to his inferiors. Just as Manuel Manahan and Rogelio de la Rosa were vanquished, wounded mortally, and scarred till they died.
Independent candidates may win in the local elections, or even in the senate race. Grace Poe was independent when she ran for senator. But she did not run on her own. She was adopted by the Liberal Party. The party machinery worked for her, guarded her votes from the precinct and ward levels to the electoral tribunal. The LP regional, provincial, city and municipal directorates and leadership carried her candidacy. She could not claim that she accomplished it on her own. But now that she is gunning for the presidency, against the LP that helped her tremendously, what machinery will carry her? The NPC? Not all of them will support her. The NPC is not united. In fact, like the NP, and Lakas, it may declare a '' zona libre'' on the presidential race. In Cebu, who will carry the NPC? Winston?
The close relationship with Chiz Escudero is not really a strong plus factor for Grace Poe. Perhaps this was the reason why Chiz was not invited in Poe's self-proclamation program in UP. The inner circle of Grace might have already realized that there are a lot of Grace supporters who cannot stomach Escudero. Thus, Grace is gradually distancing herself from Chiz. The Bicol votes will be heavily controlled by the Liberal Party with Albay being strongly led by Governor Joey Salceda and Camarines Sur being greatly influenced by three great leaders, Leny Robredo of Naga, El-Ray Villafuerte of Camarines Sur, and Secretary Leila de Lima. Chiz is not even solidly supported in Sorsogon. What value then would he add to Grace?
And so, where shall Grace Poe get her votes? Of course, she topped the surveys. But survey results can not necessarily be translated into actual votes. Mar Roxas was topping all surveys for vice president in 2010. He was closely followed by Loren Legarda. But contrary to the trending patterns established by survey results, Jojo Binay surprisingly surged all the way from the back and won the contest. Both Roxas and Legarda did not know what hit them. Binay was a very effective grassroot campaigner. The style of Roxas was very corporate, and Loren's was somehow ala showbiz. Both of them lost to the man of the masses, Jojo Binay. I'm afraid that history shall repeat itself. There is a wide ocean between idealism and the realities on the ground.
The history of our country and the dynamics of Philippine politics are not conducive to idealist candidates like Grace Poe. Her style is good only in campuses like UP. But this is not an election for the student council. Poe resembles the fate of Miriam Defensor Santiago running against the veteran FVR. Miriam was more applauded. But she was beaten by a grassroot field commander who knows the terrain. Candidates of the molds of Miriam and Grace are not unlike Don Quixote de la Mancha who aims to slay windmills as if they are dragons. And idealists are deluding themselves as if they are knights in shining armors. Even if they win the votes, they may be cheated and ultimately victory would be grabbed by the more astute, the more scheming, and the more organized. Dreams cannot make presidential ambitions come true. The sooner they come to their senses, the better for them.
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