Political jockeying

The Nationalist People’s Coalition is considered to be the second biggest political party in the Philippines, whose members currently occupy 42 congressional seats, 14 gubernatorial positions and 246 mayoralty posts. According to information we gathered, this is the only other party with a well-oiled organizational machinery after the administration’s Liberal Party and ahead of the United Nationalist Alliance of Vice President Jojo Binay. It’s clear why both parties are trying to court the NPC — it could indeed be a major factor in the 2016 elections.

Although Grace Poe has yet to declare her intention to run for president in the upcoming polls, a big number of NPC members are already inclined to support her since her father, the late action king Fernando Poe Jr., was the Nationalist People’s Coalition’s standard bearer in the 2004 presidential polls. Mar Roxas is hoping to still get the support of the NPC which is currently a coalition partner of the Aquino administration.

As everyone knows, NPC founder Ambassador Eduardo “ Danding” Cojuangco has since reconciled with his cousin – the late president Cory Aquino and her family, but from my conversation with ECJ, it was apparent that he is really leaving the decision to the current party leadership to decide which one among the presidential candidates will be carried by the party. At this stage in his life according to ECJ, he would rather focus on other things rather than be involved in politics. But as everyone says – he’s still the “Boss.”

With only a few months left before the deadline for the filing of certificates of candidacy, people can expect political maneuvering and jockeying to become more intense. At this point, the number one target is Senator Grace Poe — who has gone up in survey ratings as the candidate to beat. The attacks against her have noticeably escalated with “bully” tactics being applied to “convince” her not to run for president or on the other hand, slide down as a running mate.

However, informal surveys show that the attacks against the senator – whether on the issue of her citizenship or other ridiculous accusations that she is a maid beater and an alcoholic – has only strengthened her winnability as a presidential candidate. While the senator has yet to reveal her final decision, the moves she has been making of late indicate that she is set to declare her candidacy very soon.

Admittedly, legal opinion is divided on the issue of her residency but many legal minds we have talked with are convinced this will not stick. Even moves to have her suspended as a senator will not prosper, an elections law expert told us. The minute her hand was raised by the Comelec – it became moot and academic. Many observers describe what’s happening to Grace Poe as “one of those phenomenal situations” where she suddenly shot up in the surveys. Her supporters see this as her “destiny.” A number of businessmen who believe in her impeccable integrity are already lining up to give her financial support. It’s also no big secret that a big number of NPC members look at her as a “member by affinity” due to the fact that her father ran under the strength of the NPC in 2004. Her close political ally, Senator Chiz Escudero, was a former NPC member who, even after leaving the party, has kept in touch with Danding Cojuangco – giving every indication that the NPC machinery will, at the end of the day, cast its lot with Grace Poe’s candidacy.

The big question now is, how will other candidates fare?

Mar Roxas certainly has the administration machinery behind him and a significant chunk of the upper crust of society. However, people have yet to see whether the endorsement by the president will translate into votes and if so, how significant a factor the endorsement will be when the next survey results come out. There is also strong sentiment that Mar Roxas has to prove himself as someone who can stand on his own merit and is not dependent on or just “parroting” the president. On the other hand, the grassroots following of Vice President Jejomar Binay has remained intact despite the accusations that have been leveled against him.

One very important factor that candidates cannot afford to brush off is the so-called “sweet spot” which is the youth vote. According to the National Youth Commission, the 18-30 age group comprises about 40 percent of the estimated 52 million registered voters in the country.  However, according to the latest data from the Comelec, some 50 million voters are now in the current registry of voters – but the number could go as high as 56 million when the pending applications for voters’ registration and the reactivation of disenfranchised voters is completed.

Of that prospective total number, over 50 percent belong to the youth sector which is defined by some as those belonging to the 18-35 age group. This is going to be where the new voting arena is – because voters from this sector are now very much aware of the issues and are becoming more opinionated due to social media, where a tweet can go viral in hours. Smart phones are now more affordable and are available to all sectors of society. In fact, I was pleasantly surprised when a member of our household was using Facebook and Twitter. As some people have noted, the Internet has truly democratized the way we live today – with the household helper having as much access to information as the company CEO with whom she works for – and using that information to wield power on election day.

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