Anointment and horse-trading

The 2016 presidential contest is emerging into a three-cornered fight. To slug it out will most certainly be: Mar Roxas of the Liberal Party, Jojo Binay of the United Nationalist Alliance, and Sen. Grace Poe, an independent candidate who has yet to formally announce her candidacy. The first two aspirants have yet to decide on their running mates. Poe however is certain to have Sen. Francis Escudero as her vice presidential candidate, assuming she would decide to run.

Even with incomplete tandem, however, horse trading is now going among non-aligned political groups such as the Nationalist Party, the Nationalist People's Coalition, the resurrected Kilusanng Bagong Lipunan and other less prominent political clusters. For its part, UNA is reported to be on negotiation stage with KBL and PMM (Partidong Manggagawa at Magsasaka). One possible outcome is the formation of a Binay-Marcos ticket, a strange development indeed, considering that Binay was an active anti-Marcos oppositionist during the martial law era. Politics, however, is addition and KBL's Marcos would enable UNA to get a big slice of the so-called "solid north" in Ilocandia country.

Now that the LP presidential candidate is known, the party will very likely embark on its own party-baiting efforts. One attractive target is former senator Manny Villar's  NP whose supporters are said to be intact. Or Manila mayor Estrada's Partidong Masa whose millions of followers in the capital city would go where its mayor would go. Estrada however has made public his preference of Grace Poe as his candidate so he might join a coalition in support of the woman presidentiable.

One question in the minds of many: Would PNoy's anointment of Roxas push up the latter's number in the next survey? Most likely it will because the President, despite criticisms, still commands the loyalty of many congressmen and local leaders as well as electors. Remember many of these officials are running for reelection or are backstopping the candidacies of family members or close associates. Where will they source their campaign kitty? Where else but from the one who holds the DAP or PDAF (or whatever it is called now) purse measured in billions of pesos?

Another question: Can Binay match the spending splurge of the LP? Perhaps he can, counting his family's resources and those from Makati businessmen. What about the prospective Poe-Escudero tandem, can it afford to spend billions to support its Malacañang ambition? Maybe yes, maybe no, depending on where the windfall of Philippine business money blows.

One thing is, money only cannot guarantee a win at the polls. Some years ago, when the level of education among the electorate was low (this was before the presence of free high schools and community colleges) the pocketbook was king. But not anymore. These days the character profile of candidates counts a lot especially among middle class or near middle class electors. Character profile includes the personal traits and values of the candidate.

These questions are relevant insofar as character traits are concerned. Is the candidate reputed to be an honest man or woman? Is he approachable and genuinely friendly? Can he govern? Related to character quality is popularity especially in the arena of entertainment. This is a strong determinant which, in previous elections, local or national, caused the election of cinema celebrities to public offices. Joseph Estrada's election as president in 2000 was generally traceable to his popularity (among the masa at least) as a heroic character in action pictures. And how many of the incumbent and past senators owe their election to their movie fans?

Money, character traits and popularity plus an undefined element called charisma are really the major determinants of one's elevation into a public office in the Philippines. These considered, who among the known contenders of Philippine presidency can claim more points on each of these factors? Assuming the absence of cheating, the candidate who has money, a reputation for being a good person, is charismatic, and popular, is likely to get elected.