Stormy

How unusual is this, a typhoon right smack into Holy Week?

Not too unusual, our weathermen tell us. In my entire lifetime, however, I do not recall a Good Friday with rains, let alone a typhoon.

Nothing to do with global warming, we are told. This typhoon is brought to you by El Nino, a cyclical weather pattern characterized by warmer currents in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The warmer currents bring drought in some place and cause unseasonal storms.

Chedeng, as the typhoon is now known after crossing into our area of responsibility, is tagged a super typhoon by US weather agencies. It is not (yet) tagged as such by Japanese and Filipino weather agencies. It turns out, there is a minor difference in the time for measuring maximum wind gusts between American and Asian weathermen.

Nevertheless, as she crossed into our territory, Chedeng is measuring just short of “super-typhoon” strength. That is hardly any comfort. This is a severe typhoon heading straight to the congested Luzon heartland.

This is like getting into a scrap with a fighter just a shade below Manny Pacquiao strength. We will be bruised, to say the least.

As I write this, our weathermen are trying to assure us that there are no other weather conditions that will serve to enhance Chedeng’s strength. The chances are that the typhoon will weaken before it hits land. At the moment, however, those are just chances.

To be sure, as we enter a long and hot summer threatened by drought, we need some rain to fill up our dams. Typhoons, however, are notorious for bringing in more wind than water. Too, our soil, when parched, tends to have poor water retentiveness. Heavy rains quickly convert into flash floods.

The most unique thing about Chedeng is what makes us most vulnerable.

Expected to make landfall Saturday, this typhoon hits us during a moment when most Filipinos are away from their homes. The Holy Week, in this country, has evolved into vacation week. This time of the year, a massive exodus of people and their vehicles happens. This time of the year, the city is least populated and the roads are most full.

From today until Easter, most media establishments are shut down. There are no papers, no radio and no live television. The reporters are out holiday-making.

There will be, in a word, no real-time monitoring of what could be major natural calamity.

Government services will be skeletal. Citizen volunteer groups will likely be undermanned. Relief and rescue organizations will be far from full strength.

On the other hand, we will have millions out in the highways and in poorly protected beaches. It is bad enough that our road system is overburdened this time of the year, with queues in the toll roads stretching out kilometers. Should some of our roads flood because of the oncoming typhoon, there will be chaos.

The holiday season is chaos enough on our deficient road system. The storm will compound that.

I am surprised that the authorities are not addressing this particular vulnerability with the concern it deserves. We have volunteer teams out there ready to help motorists when their vehicles malfunction. They are not the teams ready to help tens of thousands of stranded travellers. The local governments, particularly in Central and Northern Luzon, should be mobilized with the imaginable contingencies.

 What about prepositioning relief items in all the provincial capitols in areas likely to be affected by this storm?

What about cancelling leaves for local government employees, police and fire personnel, the DSWD and the DILG? There will be howls of protests to be sure. But this is what risk management demands.

If Chedeng substantially retains its strength when it makes landfall, roads will be cut. Many shelters will be downed. Communications might be at risk. In some areas, food and fresh water might not be sufficient.

If this storm escalates to “super typhoon” strength, we could end up with a mass casualty situation. There will be storm surges on the eastern seacoast. There could be landslides, especially along those vulnerable roads leading up to Baguio, which will be filled to the rim with people this weekend.

As I write this, President Aquino is doing his annual ritual of checking the Batangas port, the Manila airport terminals and, possibly, some bus terminals. Like Kim Jong-un, he is trailed by officials taking careful note of his superficial observations: some more life vests here, improved check-in procedures there.

He has said nothing yet about the typhoon barreling towards heavily populated Luzon island. He has not ordered the army to stop our fishermen from leaving shore when the winds start to pick up. No orders to preposition relief goods.

The AFP, on its own initiative, cancelled leaves and raised the alert status for troops. But the local governments have received no marching orders to upgrade preparations for a possible calamity.

Perhaps I am being a bit too paranoid here. But we do have a storm, punching just a shade below “super typhoon” category due to hit land in two days. There should at least be a bit more excitement about it — specially since much of our media shuts down from Holy Thursday and it will be impossible to communicate through radio with all the people out in the crowded roads.

Perhaps I am haunted by how poorly prepared we were when Yolanda hit our midsection. For days, our officials warned us about the coming “super typhoon” but did little on the ground preparing for massive rescue and relief operations.

Let us hope there will be no repeat of such a calamity magnified by negligence.