Lame duck

Vice-President Jejomar Binay sounded confident he will, at the end of the day, receive President Aquino’s endorsement for the successor presidency. This will most likely happen in the form of a coalition between Binay’s political formation and the Liberal Party (LP).

The Binay scenario is the stuff of nightmares for the scandal- and incompetence-prone bigwigs of the LP. The day after the possibility was headlined in this paper, the LP bigwigs sounded a chorus denying it will ever happen. The situation, however, is quickly slipping from their hands.

By contrast, President Aquino’s sisters, all present during the same event when Binay announced the possibility, seemed supportive of the idea. It could be the formula for national unity, the presidential sisters chorused.

President Aquino himself seemed caught unprepared for that announcement. He has, to date, kept a disturbed silence on Binay’s statement. That he did not contradict it outright says a lot.

For months, the political grapevine has been abuzz with talk Aquino gave Mar Roxas, the presumptive LP standard-bearer until the end of July to improve his poll standings. This could be the reason Roxas, the past few months, seemed earnestly trying to grab photo opportunities to the point of awkwardness.

It is now August. Roxas’ ratings have not improved. On the contrary, they have deteriorated — weighed down by the sheer absence of any palpable achievement in all the key posts he was awarded the last four years.

Roxas, the past few weeks, was simply snowed under by all the controversies relating to the DAP. Those who were supposed to raise him up in the public’s esteem are themselves beleaguered by the scandals. The man was last seen directing traffic in the rain.

More and more, the extortion and malversation scandals that have been hugging the headlines all seem to be leading straight up to the LP’s door. The party seemed too obsessed with building up some electoral war chest and buying the loyalty of local officials, forgetting that, in the end, it should be the qualities of the standard-bearer that will sway voters.

There are more scandals coming.

A staggering P8 billion in DAP money was supposed to have been allocated for Muslim Mindanao through the ARMM. The governor of the autonomous regions seems willing to account for only P2 billion of that fund. A humungous P6 billion is now missing.

The ARMM is our most dysfunctional local government entity. It is hardly audited. Its excesses have been tolerated by the national government in the name of keeping the peace. Because of its decrepit mechanisms of governance, the ARMM has been the favored mechanism for laundering public money and plowing the same back to national politicians.

The closer we look at the DAP funds that went to the ARMM, the more vulnerable the LP will be.

As the pork-related scandals simmer, the greater likelihood is that Aquino’s own political standing will erode further. He is now swimming against the tide of public outrage.

The rapid erosion of Aquino’s political capital basically forecloses the possibility of any notable new achievement in the closing months of his term. Disarmed of the ability to freely dispense pork, he will lose his grip over politicians. Trapped in his own universe, stubbornly insisting on his queer versions of how government is run, the value of his endorsement dissipates.

There is now consensus he has transitioned rather turbulently into lame duck status. He has become the icon for all the disillusionment that pervades: over stinking airports, crumbling infrastructure, diplomatic humiliation and rising poverty.

Aquino himself appears to have decreed on himself that he is a lame duck. As the lies he tried to peddle in his last SONA are exposed, he seems to have chosen to sulk in some dark corner, leaving his underlings to squabble among themselves. He has made no forceful statement about what great things the nation may expect from the remains of his rule.

With Aquino sinking, and beneath him his erstwhile protégé Roxas, and Binay’s star rising, why should the latter even want the former’s “anointment”?

The easy answer is: politics is addition.

Besides, that “anointment” will raise the hurdle even higher for other challengers. It will produce a political synergy that will make the final outcome even more certain.

Results of the latest survey, according to advance information, show Binay piling it up against all potential rivals. He could be the first presidential candidate to actually win an absolute majority since the current “multi-party” system was adopted in 1987.

Aquino may have no other practicable choice. With his own popularity dipping inexorably and Binay’s base of support growing exponentially, Aquino needs Binay as a crutch as he limps to the finish line of his presidency.

Time is against Aquino. There is very little of it left to redeem his presidency. The value of his endorsement diminishes by the day. If he throws whatever is left of his endorsement value behind a sure loser, he will squander whatever little is left by way of a legacy bequeathed the nation.

There is a tipping point, too. Eventually, his endorsement will tip from a political plus to a political minus. No one may want it even as he offers it for his own protection.

We are nearing that tipping point. Today, Aquino cannot even extract any concession to trade for his endorsement. His ability to manage his own succession is quickly slipping from his hands.

It is a pitiful sight we now witness: the dying gasps of a regime drowned by its own incompetence.