Harsh reality of China’s claims

Amidst the continuing tensions between the Philippines and China, the most dramatic imagery this week is that of the Philippine flag which continues to fly over the Ayungin Shoals, and the Philippine National Anthem which continues to be sung in a rusty naval ship surrounded by Chinese warships.

The newspaper headlines narrate the latest incidents. It started when a small civilian ship was able to evade much larger Chinese coast guard vessels by maneuvering in shallow waters. It succeeded in its mission to resupply and bring in a new contingent of Marines manning the grounded ship in the Ayungin Shoals.

Then the Philippines submitted a 4,000-page memorial or written argument to the United Nations arbitral tribunal hearing regarding its case contesting the excessive claims of China in the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea).

The Chinese Foreign Office summoned the Philippine ambassador to protest the Philippines’ action in the United Nations.

All these tensions and confrontations are still a surprise to many people. After all, during the Cold War, Communist China never poised a direct threat against Philippine sovereignty. With the end of Maoist rule, Capitalist China was expected to be a global partner in world trade and economic development. But now it is a capitalist China that has sent warships into the territorial waters of its neighboring countries.

In order to fully appreciate this whole situation, it is important to look at the map of East Asia. Look at the location of the West Philippine Sea.

First, the West Philippine Sea is bordered by China, Taiwan, Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam. All these six countries, therefore, are directly affected by whatever happens in this sea which is like a highway connecting them.

Europe and the Middle East are big land masses. Therefore, any country wanting to expand its territory will do so by invading neighboring land areas. In this part of the world, expansion can be done only by controlling the West Philippine Sea.

The second observation, after reviewing the geographic map, is that the West Philippine Sea is the route or again the highway between Africa and the Middle East and the countries bordering the sea, and other countries like Japan and South Korea. The oil and minerals from the Middle East and Africa to China and Japan must pass through this maritime route. At the same time, exports from China, Japan and South Korea to Europe must also pass through this route or “superhighway.”

Robert D. Kaplan, in his book “Asia’s Cauldron” describes the geopolitical impact when he said:

“The South China functions as the “throat” of the Western Pacific and Indian oceans – the mass of connective economic tissue where global sea routes coalesce...More than half of the world’s annual merchant fleet tonnage passes through these choke points, and a third of all maritime traffic worldwide. The oil transported through the Malacca Strait from the Indian Ocean, en route to East Asia through the South China Sea is triple the amount that passes through the Suez Canal and 15 times the amount that transits the Panama Canal. Roughly two thirds of South Korea’s energy supplies, nearly 60% of Japan’s and Taiwan’s energy supplies, and 80% of China’s crude oil imports come through the South China Sea.“

The existence of oil and gas reserves is also already a widely accepted fact. The only question is the size of these reserves. Some estimate that there are reserves of seven billion barrels of oil and an estimated 900 trillion cubic feet of natural gas – very much bigger than the Malampaya gas reserve. Kaplan says: “If the Chinese calculations are correct that the South China Sea will ultimately yield 130 billion barrels of oil (and there is some serious doubt about these estimates),then the South China Sea contains more oil than any area of the globe except Saudi Arabia...And the China National Offshore Oil Corp. has invested $20 billion in the belief that such amounts of oil really do exist in the South China Sea. China is desperate for new energy. Chinese oil reserves account for only 1.1% of the world total, while it consumes over 10% of world oil production and over 20% of all the energy consumed on the planet.”

It is important to understand that China’s desire to control the seas bordering its mainland has nothing to do with historical claims. China believes that if it is to become a world superpower, it must gain control over the East China Sea and the South China Sea.

China’s biggest problem is in the East China Sea where Japan and South Korea may develop the military and naval capability necessary to successfully confront China. Also, American troops are based in both Japan and South Korea.

In the South China Sea, China is confronted by much weaker nations Here, China’s grand plan is to avoid any multilateral discussions even with ASEAN nations on a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea.

China will insist on bilateral – or country to country – negotiations. In this way any unified ASEAN stand will be prevented.  This is the classic divide-and-conquer strategy. So far, the biggest obstacle to this grand plan is the Philippine appeal to international arbitration.

China’s territorial aggression is not motivated by historical or ideological reasons. The harsh reality is that the primary motivation is China’s desire to be a world economic and political superpower. And it views the South China as the first step towards attaining this status. Also it sees an adjacent sea with only a few weaker states to contest its claims.

The only means to stop China is to restore a military and naval balance of power in the West Philippine Sea. This can only be done if the United States and Japan will be willing to form a coalition of forces with the aggrieved ASEAN nations, principally Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia.

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