Unwind

We might choose to crow about it – and then prepare for more such skirmishes in the future.

The other day, a boatload of intrepid Filipinos set off to challenge Chinese patrol craft in the South China Sea. The boat was hardly impressive although its mission was audacious: to bring supplies and reinforcement to that poor Marine detachment at Ayungin Shoal.

Not surprisingly, a Chinese patrol boat emerged, like a lioness guarding her cubs, and tried to shoo the rickety Filipino boat away. The Filipinos managed to run the blockade by running into shallower waters inaccessible to the bigger Chinese ship. The lonely outpost on Ayungin Shoal manned by hardy Marines was resupplied.

The Philippine outpost on Ayungin is, well, pathetic. It was the subject of a photo essay by the New York Times a few months ago. The essay conveyed how desperate Philippine efforts to insist on our claims are.

The outpost is the rusty shell of BRP Sierra Madre that was intentionally beached for that purpose. When the sun bears down on the shoal, the grounded ship is like an oven. When it rains, the rusty shell leaks everywhere.

Although it is not much to look at, this cadaver of a ship is our forward base. It is manned by a platoon of Marines who must have been sent there to be punished for some misdemeanor. Day in and day out, the Marines stare out to the empty sea. The emptiness is broken only by the occasional sighting of Chinese patrol craft staking their claim on the territory.

The Marine outpost on this lonely shoal looks more like a shipwrecked crew than a staunch garrison. Should China decide to put boots on the ground in this contested shoal, the Marine detachment is supposed to give the invaders battle – the tremendously lopsided odds notwithstanding.

If we were really inclined to hold Ayungin Shoal as our outer territorial perimeter, some effort might have been exerted to build a more respectable structure there – at least for the comfort of our own troops. Manila, after all, has been huffing and puffing, making possession of Ayungin Shoal an unconditional matter.

Oh well, just add that to the long list of infra projects this lackadaisical administration simply failed to build.

For weeks, we saved the Marine garrison on Ayungin Shoal from starvation by airdropping supplies. That made that audacious run through the Chinese blockade by a rickety fishing boat full of curious journalists a victory of sorts.

How long can we keep on doing this?

This weekend, we filed our memorial with the international arbitration tribunal. It seeks to invalidate China’s “nine-dash line” that sticks out like a cow’s tongue into nearly the entirety of the South China Sea – which we prefer to call the “West Philippine Sea,” although no other country uses this nomenclature.

Beijing, to be sure, is not pleased by our decision to submit the competing territorial claims to international arbitration. I spoke to a senior Chinese diplomat a few months ago and she tried to impress on me how, in Chinese culture, bringing a friend to court is an extremely insulting gesture. I told her we have run out of options.

Somewhere along the way, our bilateral relationship took a wrong step. From there, it could only go from bad to worse.

At this point, we can say that our competing claims over portions of the South China Sea have become a hostile confrontation. At Bajo de Masinloc, Chinese vessels are hosing down our fishing craft. At Ayungin Shoal, we are playing cat-and-mouse with the Chinese Navy in a desperate effort to keep our outpost supplied.

The arbitration proceedings we asked to be initiated will last for years, possibly decades. At any rate, Beijing has refused to be party to this arbitration and announced they would reject a ruling by the arbitral tribunal.

Over the next few days, it might be expected that Beijing will step up its patrols as a response to the initiation of arbitration proceedings. They will try and tighten their hold on the contested reefs, possibly building more structures to reinforce their claim through outright control. No way Beijing will want to see its blockade taken lightly. That audacious run we pulled a few days ago results in a loss of face for Beijing.

That outpost at Ayungin Shoal, a point of pride for the Philippine Marines, is also our greatest vulnerability at this point. It is easy to imagine China will want to tighten its blockade, prevent resupply more effectively and force starving Philippine troops to withdraw.

Beijing has no love lost for the incumbent Aquino administration. They will not let an opportunity pass to deal it an embarrassing blow.

I disagree with that lame analysis offered that the filing of our memorial at the arbitral tribunal would cause China to be more circumspect in its actions at the South China Sea. On matters of disputed boundaries, effective occupation is 90% of the resolution.

I am almost sure that Beijing will use the next two years to consolidate its position in the disputed reefs and shoals. All indications are that China will reopen diplomatic avenues only after the Aquino administration is gone.

With no functioning diplomatic avenues at the moment, there is no means to unwind the tangled positions in the South China Sea. Beijing will use this interregnum to strengthen its hold.

Over the longer term, even if some warmth is restored to our bilateral relationship, it still boggles the mind to imagine a way we could move out of this leather lock and enhance our options.