The US is the problem, not China

China's continued territorial assertions (it is now about to implement a new air defense identification zone over the South China Sea is not the real problem. The real problem is that it is being made to believe it can get away with it.

While it has taken numerous concrete actions to assert itself in the area, all the other claimants to parts or the whole of the contested chain of islets there have taken no more than tough rhetoric against China. The Philippines, one of the claimants, has gone to court. But whether that means anything remains to be seen.

The United States, while not a claimant but with vested interests in the region, has not lifted a finger to put China in its place. This has only emboldened China to become even more aggressive. And the longer the United States hesitates, the weaker its own position becomes.

The United States is not being asked to fire at Chinese vessels now patrolling the area. But if it does, I am sure the Chinese have already taken that into account. What China is doing is take calculated risks. I do not believe China's muscle-flexing does not include a worst-case scenario.

That worst-case scenario involves an armed confrontation with the United States. If that happens, China will have two options, withdraw to its zone of comfort, or risk a larger conflict by engaging the US. I think China cannot afford that yet and will have to withdraw.

China has not yet reached that level of military capability to engage the US in a real shooting war. And it knows that the US has several militarily strong allies in the region who would only be too happy to teach China a lesson.

I do not think China's actions in the region is to really acquire more territory, although it would only be too happy to do so if it can get away with it. I think the real reason behind China's aggression is to test the limits of US patience. China wants to know how far it can push the US.

Right now, more than anything else, China is being egged on into more aggressiveness by US acquiescence and tolerance. Had China been consumed by nothing more than blind greed for real estate, it could have grabbed all it can in one quick grab and be done with it.

But the fact that it is doing everything in phases can only indicate the great care it is taking to test US patience. That means it is not prepared to force the US hand with one stupid move from which it might not be able to recover.

But by doing everything in slow but deliberate sequences, in the same way the old Chinese traders do business by preferring small but constant profits to get-rich-quick methods, China is able to measure out the US even as it makes small but steady territorial inroads in the process.

So the real problem is not really China but the US. Why the US? Because even China has to acknowledge that it is only the US that can truly make a difference. Whatever may be China's ambitions, for them to succeed it must first know with certainty how the US reacts.

The US over the decades has leveraged itself into becoming a crucial factor in almost every aspect of life as we know it. Nothing is truer than the observation that "when America sneezes, the rest of the world catches cold." Even China subscribes to that notion, hence the need to feel the US pulse.

If China gets around to implementing a new air defense identification zone (an area through which no plane, military or civilian, may pass or transit without notifying and seeking approval from China) it can only be because the US has not seen fit to stop it.

The first ADIZ it put in place near Japan, and which so riled the Japanese, initially drew a quick US response -- it flew two unarmed bombers through the zone -- but that was it. Nothing was done ever since and China is lord of the skies over there. Without the US, Japan can only keep bristling.

Japan by nature would have risked everything to pounce on China for the provocation, but in all likelihood it was prevailed upon by the US not to do so, in the same manner that the US held back Israel from responding to Iraq's Scud missile attacks. China, therefore, is not the problem but the US is.