Politicos are all the same; voters make the difference

BAKU, Azerbaijan — When traveling abroad Filipinos invariably compare what they see with the homeland. It was for such trait, as well as my personal interest in elections, that I readily accepted the invitation of the parliament of this Central Asian state to observe the presidential balloting. The inviters had been told of my co-leadership of the Media-Citizens Quick Count of our own presidential election in 1992. (The invitation was coursed through the Centrist Asia-Pacific Democrats International, founded by among others former Speaker Jose de Venecia Jr.)

I wish I could say that any similarities in the situations of Azerbaijan and the Philippines are purely coincidental. But I can’t; they’re not. At any rate, some observations and conclusions of the voting last Oct. 9:

• Running for a third five-year term, incumbent President Ilham Aliyev won as expected by a landslide. He would have been ineligible to run, had he not pushed for the lifting of the two-term limit in 2009, right after he won a second and supposedly last term. In developing states, leaders tend to think themselves irreplaceable, and so alter the system to rule for life.

• The main opposition candidate was Jamil Hasanli of the National Council of Democratic Forces. He was a consensus alternative. The original candidate, Oscar award-winning screenwriter Rustam Ibragimbekov, was disqualified for being a Russian and Azeri dual citizen. Eight others vied for the republic’s top post. That’s the tendency of oppositionists in developing countries. Each thinks he alone is the best alternative, so they end up too fractious to win. Some even think that being opposition gives them a right to break rules, and regard disqualification as oppression.

• Aliyev had taken over the Presidency from his father Hayder Aliyev, who served as President for two terms starting 1993. This country has never known any other presidential surname since separating from the Soviet Union in 1991. One of this year’s presidential contenders, social democrat Araz Alizadeh, said the three main problems of his country are political monopoly (dynasties), government corruption (bribery and kickbacks), and economic oligarchy (business cronies).

• Aliyev is truly popular because of his economic achievements. He brought down poverty from 55 percent to only six percent in the past ten years. During that period more than 900 major factories were put up. The Azeri currency, the manat, is stronger than the United States dollar ($1 = 0.78 manat). Unemployment is less than two percent. Oil and gas revenues were used to build schools and hospitals. Some of the presidential contenders said the state’s excess earnings from rich oilfields should be used for two programs: welfare state, and expulsion of Armenian invaders from a fifth of Azerbaijan territory. Neighboring Armenia is a Russian military outpost, and negotiations by Aliyev to eject the occupiers have to be conducted not with the Armenians but with Russia. For continuing to buy arms from Russia to fight Armenia, Aliyev is under severe criticism of softness with Russia.

• The Azerbaijan media are partial to the incumbent. So claimed Alizadeh and two other presidential candidates who talked with the foreign press, MPs Zahid Oruc and Gudrat Hasanguliyev. The state broadcast network gave each of the ten candidates six minutes of free ads. They had to buy spots from 15 private networks at a rate of $60 (P2,600) per second! That was easy for incumbent Aliyev, who has many deep-pocketed businessmen-donors. Over a hundred newspapers covered largely the administration’s, not the opposition’s events, the latter decried. But that’s understandable: the press always goes for hard news, not political stunts. In the Philippines that admin edge is called “equity of the incumbent.”

Some similarities and differences in the voting stood out. Like, a presidential candidate must be endorsed by at least 40,000 voters to become eligible to run. He must also be a member of a party duly registered with the election commission. No nuisance or factional candidates here. The winner must get an absolute majority of more than 50 percent, not mere plurality, of the votes cast. If no one garners a majority, the two highest vote getters automatically vie in a runoff balloting 11 days later. The campaign period is only 22 days, ending two days before Election Day. Election eve is spent removing all the campaign posters.

On Election Day, a holiday, voters go to their assigned polling centers in their Sunday best. Schoolhouses serve as the centers, each with only 1,200 to 1,500 voters. (Azerbaijan’s nine million population is less than a tenth of the Philippines,’ and so is its number of voters.) In the centers are poll inspectors and citizen observers, sitting on opposite sides of the balloting booths. Everything is solemn and orderly; no jostling to be marked with indelible ink for entry, or looking for names in the voters’ list, or being handed the ballot. And there is no last-minute campaigning and pamphleteering outside the center.

Voters, minimum age 18, are all at least high school graduates, meaning, 12 years of basic education and so equipped for gainful employment. Those in the city are abreast of current events. In the rural areas paternalistic politics reigns; whoever the male head of family prefers, the whole household will vote for.

Because elections for president, parliament, and local officials are desynchronized, the ballots are short and quick to fill up. The voting and counting are manual. Only the canvassing and result transmission to the election body’s central office are automated. Voting centers open at 8 a.m. and close at 7 p.m. The poll inspectors do the counting, monitored by the volunteer observers and two CCTV cameras. By midnight the full results are known, and the winner proclaimed the next day.

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