Brewing social upheaval against ‘pork’ defenders

It’s incomprehensible why 97 able-bodied Tausugs willingly died for their leader’s vain cause. Nur Misuari, Moro National Liberation Front founder, lured them into taking up arms against superior government forces. Reason: Malacañang had bypassed him as interim governor of the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao, in the subsequent election for which he lost miserably. Thus, their 15-day siege as of last weekend of five lower-class barrios in Zamboanga City. They killed 11 civilians and 13 lawmen, burned down scores of shanties, and drove 112,000 to refugee camp.

This isn’t the first time Misuari’s power tripping cost loyalists’ lives. In 2001, when Malacañang refused to extend him as governor, he had his men raze Kabatangan, the multibillion-peso ARMM extension HQ in Zamboanga. Thirty-two MNLFs died fighting for his illegal wish.

In that earlier mutiny Misuari’s band took hostage 86 civilians, mostly women, some cradling infants. This time they hostaged five times more. For that, the captured remnants can be charged with non-bailable terrorism. Misuari, being far away from the shooting like last time, will be indicted only for inciting to rebellion.

The government would do well to examine the captives’ sentiment. Seething underneath the terroristic acts and blind loyalty to Misuari may be feelings of neglect and social injustice. Initial profiling shows most of them coming from the un-electrified hinterlands, of no schooling, and ignorant of current events. Some said they were promised combat pay. Too, that as soon as they could take hold of city hall, the “United Nations Navy” would arrive to reinforce them.

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Reader Howard C. of my old Bible congregation reacts to last Friday’s column on the plundering senators:

“You alluded to the ‘certain exposure of (a senator’s) King Saul-like dalliance with his top aide.’ I’m sure you meant ‘King David-like.’ The illicit affair of the senator and his aide is often talked about, albeit in whispers. King David had sent Uriah to fight for him in war and, coveting the wife Bathsheba, slept with her. So did the senator. King David and Bathsheba’s sin led to more abominations. Now we have the ‘pork’ plunder.”

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There’s something about the timing of political upheavals in the Philippines, notes history Prof. Jaime Veneracion. They tend to triumph if occurring in the first quarter of the year. There was the First-Quarter Storm of 1970, when weekly youth demonstrations (Jan. 26-Mar. 24) against a rotting system brought forth constitutional revisions. There was the EDSA People Power Revolt of Feb. 22-25, 1986, which toppled the 14-year Marcos dictatorship. There was People Power-II of Jan. 16-20, 2001, that ousted a plundering President.

It’s hard to pinpoint what makes such first-quarter movements succeed. Could it be because a new year opens full of hope, verve, and resolve? Could it be that social cataclysms melt when overtaken by the fiestas of May in the second quarter, or the typhoons of the third, or Christmastime in the fourth?

Still, I hazard another observation. Filipinos rise in massive protest every 15 or so years. Note the gap from 1970 to 1986, and 1986 to 2001 – exactly or nearly 15 years.

It’s just my historicism. But note too that there are nearly 75 years – or five 15-year gaps – from 1896 to 1970. Fitting the observation is the year when Katipuneros at Balintawak cried “Revolucion!” against Spain.

But then, that event of the last week of August was followed by defeat after defeat of the Katipunan in skirmishes with the Guardia Civil, in San Mateo-Montalban, San Juan, Balara. Was it because the fight for Independence inauspiciously began not in the first but the third quarter? Yet, I recall the venerable Dr. Veneracion lecturing at the U.P.-Diliman, the massacre of thousands of Katipuneros in Aug.-Sept. 1896 was not in vain. So incensed were the Filipinos that Manila, Bulacan, Pampanga, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Laguna, Batangas, and Cavite rose up in arms – as now depicted by the eight rays of the sun in the Philippine flag.

Debunking my “15-year cycle,” no big political event ignited in 1881, 15 years prior to the 1896 Cry. Instead there was a slow-burn Propaganda Movement that exposed the abuses of, and sought reforms under, the Spanish rule. It began in 1872, the same year of the Cavite Munity in Dec. Frs. Burgos, Gomez, and Zamora were garroted months later. The boiling years saw the printing of the Noli Me Tangere (1887) and El Filibusterismo (1891), and the founding of La Solidaridad (1889) and La Liga Filipina (1892).

What happened every 15 years thereafter 1896? More historicism:

• 1911, the 13th year of American colonialism, saw the merging of the reborn Independence and labor movements.

• In 1926 peasant unrest seethed against taxation and bondage to the soil, thus the founding of the Sakdal Movement in 1930 and the Sakdal Uprising of May 3-4, 1936.

• 1941-42, with the Fall of Bataan, Filipinos north to south banded themselves into guerrilla units against Japanese invaders.

• 1956, in the midst of nationalist resurgence in economics, arts, and literature, student activism spread in campuses, and the radical Kabataang Makabayan was born in 1964.

• Then came the dramatic 1970-1986-2001.

If the 15-year cycle holds, the people are bound to rise anew by 2016, an election year. Could the present outrage against the pork barrel scam, worsened by the political elite’s resistance to its abolition, be a prelude to an upheaval? Dynastic politicos had better not underestimate the power of social media and the anger of the thinking class. Weekend rallies and daily noise barrages are being planned nationwide to dramatize the people’s disaffection. A critical mass could build up from now till the first quarter of 2016. Then, wham!

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