Tough talk is still cheap

White House senior director for Asian Affairs Danny Russel talked tough against Chinese bullying in the South China Sea during his confirmation hearing at the United States Senate last Thursday. It was not only easy for him to do so, he also needed to.

Free speech is guaranteed on the floor of the US Senate, making it one of the safest places on earth for a man like Russel who needed to make a quick impression without having to fear for the consequences of his bombast.

And then, aside from being in a comfort zone, Russel is, more importantly, the top nominee to become the next US assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs. He needed to strut like an angry peacock.

Russel told the senators at the hearing that the disputed seas to the south and east of China were no place for coercion and bullying, in light of China's assertive posturing and actual occupation of some disputed islands in the area.

The disputes involve several tiny groups of islands, such as the Spratlys, that are being claimed, in whole or in part, by China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and the Philippines, and much farther up north by Japan.

He said it was unacceptable for China to demand only bilateral talks with the other claimant nations and vowed to support efforts by these claimant nations to negotiate as a group toward adopting a system that would handle the disputes.

It would be interesting to find out, however, how far Russel is willing to go with his tough talk once he gets the coveted position of assistant secretary of state. After all, there is a big difference between just being a nominee and actually becoming who you want to be.

As assistant secretary of state, Russel will be forced to be more diplomatic. He can be pointed in his talks, but he cannot be brash, as he seems to be now. Besides, based on the record, China's intransigence seems immovable, especially by mere talk.

It has been said that action speaks louder than words. Well, not just Russel but the US itself has been letting some form of action take the place of words to show support for the Philippines. It has given two Coast Guard cutters to the Philippine Navy, and has allowed a steady stream of visits by US Navy ships.

The Philippines, which relies solely on American support in these disputes with China, would like to believe China perfectly understands what these American actions mean. The problem is whether China interprets these actions in the same way that the Philippines does.

For the Philippines, these American actions are a warning to China and imply a commitment to come to the aid of the Philippines in case the disputes escalate into open conflict. Maybe the Philippines is correct in this regard. But then again, maybe it is woefully wrong.

Actually, China does not share the same problem with the Philippines, which has to second guess the US actions. For China, the US actions cannot be any clearer -- America is not ready to come to the aid of the Philippines.

Had China interpreted the US actions otherwise, it would not have dared continue with its brazen grabbing of islands disputed by other countries. China knows the US will not intervene because it knows, just as China does, that the real parameters of the issue are not defined militarily but economically.

There is little or no military leverage the US can gain by engaging China by force. On the contrary, both countries only have a lot to lose by war. Economy is the main thing going for both. Both understand this perfectly.

That is why the US can only go so far as provide the Philippines with token assistance. Two US Coast Guard cutters only make China laugh. As to the US naval visits, China knows the US is merely trying to keep up appearances with an old friend. China can live with that as well. As to Russel, watch how his tenor shifts.