What is China’s intention in the region?

There were two interesting stories in the newspapers that caught my attention this week and will certainly have worldwide implications. The first one is about a senior diplomat in the US State Department. His name is Daniel Russel and he is a nominee to become the top US diplomat in East Asia on the territorial disputes in the South China Sea. He claimed boldly his hardline opinion that there is no place for “coercion or bullying” in East Asia, of course referring to China in its dealings with the Philippines as well as Japan and Taiwan.

It was a welcome statement to our government of course and only strengthens the administration’s idea to bring the Philippines’ dispute with China to the United Nations for arbitration. Officials here had claimed that they had always shared the same position and felt there was no need for conflict and bullying tactics when it came to settling our maritime disputes with China, or any other country for that matter. Russel continued on to say that he would do everything he could to lower temperatures in territorial disputes and push all involved towards diplomacy.

While I agree with this type of policy, we still have to remain pragmatic about the outcome of such a statement from a high ranking official who may play an important figure in the future of this dispute and Southeast Asia. I’ve said it before that the United States would have more to lose if it chose to stand with the Philippines in armed conflict against the Chinese. The Chinese have the Americans against a rock and a hard place, so to speak, and any armed confrontation could prove disastrous for the US economy as they have more to lose if China decides to cash in their chips.

They have monumental investments in the United States and should they pull out the economy would surely be mortally wounded. This, in turn, would affect economies worldwide, including our own, which is so dependent on a strong US financial standing. This would, of course, correspond with so many lost jobs as well all over the world. This is just not something that anyone wants now or in the future. Even China would not benefit from a worldwide collapse like that and they know it.

I feel that we are trying to do the right thing when it comes to finally settling this dispute. A political settlement is the only way we can all come to an agreement without worldwide repercussions. I feel the whole of Southeast Asia would have a strong bargaining position if they came together and negotiated with the Chinese. The Chinese are pushing for bilateral negotiations with each nation and this is only beneficial to them and no one else. Even Russel contended that it was “unacceptable” for China to demand bilateral negotiations and voiced support for efforts by Southeast Asia to negotiate a code of conduct when it came to managing the disputes.

I feel coming together and fleshing this out as a whole instead of as individual parts would better serve us all. After all, despite the big advantage China has overall in terms of resources, economy, and just plain body count, it is not fair or right for us, or anyone, to just roll over and allow them to occupy the entire South China Sea, which is what it seems they are hoping to do. It’s almost laughable at this point when we see what China wants to claim as its own. You only need to look on a map to see where the lines should be drawn. However, they see no problem in redrawing the globe just to be able to get what they want.

At present, the Philippines is hoping to bring the matter to the United Nations and the ASEAN, which are the proper diplomatic venues to address such issues. Currently there is no update on the case filed by the country with the UN other than the panel of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) being announced. They will hear the case of the Philippines and the next steps will be decided there. The panel will most likely decide on jurisdiction on the matter and come back in July with the next steps in what seems like this never-ending drama.

It’s encouraging to know that while the actual dispute is ours alone to resolve, international countries understand and support our position when it comes to finding diplomatic means to solve the problem. Countries like the U.S. may have no explicit claim to the territories but must also consider the impact on their freedom of navigation should China have it’s way. Many areas that are involved are important routes for world trade. Currently, aside from the Philippines, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Brunei all have claims to reefs, islets, shoals, and atolls in what is believed to be the resource rich West Philippine Sea.

I am hoping things progress smoothly and peacefully. But again, as I said, I am not holding my breath that the US will go beyond voicing their support should the conflict become physical. I think it’s best to view the States as a supportive nation. Russel further reiterated in his speech that he would remind China that the region in which it would flourish is “a region of law, a region of order, and a region of respect for neighbors.” Although I am not convinced that this will translate into full support should the dispute go the distance, it is still heartening to hear.

This actually reminds me of when I was younger and admired the strong  foreign policy of the late President John F. Kennedy when he warned the former Soviet Union to desist from using Cuba for a missile base.  Kennedy said, in one of his many memorable moments while in office, that the US would invoke the Monroe doctrine, meaning that any immediate attack on any part of the entire Americas would be considered as an attack on the US.  Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev backed off despite all of his bluster proving that his intimidation was just that – a means of trying to get what he wanted without actually having to push through with his threats.

Who knows, China, despite being under leadership, may very well do the same if push ever came to shove. Many people say the loudest bullies still know what they stand to lose should someone stand up to them or call their bluff. We can only hope for the best when it comes to this – and that would be a peaceful resolution. However, it is always best to be prepared for every possible outcome.