Philippines and China: Conflict and cooperation

Public attention has understandably been focused on the 2013 midterm elections. However recent events serve to remind us that Philippine-China relations will continue to be a major issue for policy makers and the consequences of these policy decisions will have an impact on the daily lives of Filipinos.

First, there was the completion of the composition of the UN Arbitration panel which will decide, by June or July whether it will agree to accept the Philippine claim to the disputed islands in the West Philippine Sea.

Then there were the goodwill games by the Yao Ming basketball team which was originally scheduled last year.

The death of a Taiwanese fisherman led to several demands by the Taiwanese which the Philippine government refused to accept because we had to adhere to our one China policy.

Whether we like it or not, China is a geographic neighbor.  Therefore we will be facing China and sharing the same maritime space and our destinies — economic, political and even social — will be bound to each other. This would not be the case if the Philippines, for example, was located in the South Pacific.

I decided that the best way for me and my readers to fully understand Philippine-China relations, was to have a conversation on China with Chito Sta. Romana, who is considered one of the foremost China experts in Southeast Asia.

Chito was a student leader in the 1970s having served as student council president of La Salle and spokesman of the student movement now referred to as the First Quarter Storm. He visited China in 1972 and stayed on as a political exile when Marcos declared martial law. He came back after EDSA 1 and then went to Fletcher School in the US for a master’s degree. From 1989 to 2010, he worked with the American Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) News in their Beijing bureau as their China expert and executive producer.

Here are the highlights of our conversation reflecting his views and mine.

China’s power has grown tremendously over the past three decades. As China grew economically, it has devoted bigger resources  to increase its military  power. The source of anxiety for the world is what China will do with its rapidly growing economic and military power. China is already beginning to challenge the American dominance in the Asia-Pacific region.

However, the probability of China overtaking the USA, as an economic and military superpower,  is not yet a “sure bet”.  We have to remember what happened to Japan.

In the ‘60s and ‘70s, articles and books were written about Japan dominating the world economy. Japanese tourists virtually “invaded” Europe and were the biggest buyers of luxury items. There were fears that Japan would again resurrect its imperial ambitions just as they did in the ’30s and ‘40s when it invaded China and conquered the whole of East Asia.

But Japanese economic growth hit a plateau and entered a long period of stagnation. China’s growth is also slowing down.

But what if China’s economic trajectory continues to go up? This is a possible cause of concern. Since the 2008 global financial meltdown, Chinese policy makers and strategists have been speaking of a shift in the global balance of power. They believe that American power is in a decline and soon there will be more than one superpower; China will be one of them. This has added to the anxiety of what the Chinese will do with this power.

Even when the Maoist Communists were in power, they were already claiming all the island groups that are visible at high tide in what they called “South China Sea.” But their only recourse then was to file diplomatic protests. Now they have the military and maritime power to back up their assertions. This has led to their confrontations with Japan, Vietnam, India and the Philippines.

The difficulty in the Philippine-China issue is that it concerns territorial sovereignty. In this type of issues, it’s very difficult to find a win-win solution because neither side will want to give way. The government’s two-pronged approach, therefore, is clearly the best approach at the moment.

On one hand, we will continue pursuing territorial claims over the Panatag and Spratly Islands. The best recourse is the filing of our claim with the United Nations. Assuming the claim is accepted by the tribunal, experts believe that the final judgment will come after two to four years.  If  the tribunal votes in favor of the Philippine claim, we still have to understand that the panel has no enforcement power. However, the principal argument will be based on the fact that China, as a member of the UN Security Council with its desire to be seen as a peaceful world power will be bound to accept the UN decision.

While the conflict on territorial rights continues at the UN, the Philippines is continuing its bilateral approach in the economic areas and other people-to-people programs. The Chinese government has responded favorably to this two-pronged approach.

Direct flights from China to Boracay have been resumed. Trade has been normalized and bananas are again being exported to China. Last year, the Yao Ming visit was cancelled.  Recently, Yao Ming’s team played two goodwill games here. Perhaps the Philippines can send the Azkals or the Smart Gilas team to China in return.

The think tanks of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Beijing- based China Institute of International Studies and the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, have expressed their desire to meet with Philippine scholars and intellectuals in order to better understand Philippine politics and policies.

At some future date, the presidents of both countries will likely find the opportunity to establish personal relationships with each other. After all, personal meetings either in formal summit meets or other venues are a necessary part of international diplomacy. Perhaps, this could happen when the Philippines hosts the China-ASEAN Expo to be held from September 20 to 24, 2013 in Nanning, Guangxi province in China.

Engaging China means continuing to seek diplomatic resolutions to the issue of sovereignty while separately seeking to normalize trade and economic relations and other people-to-people programs. In dealing with China, it is advisable to proceed with caution and restraint but without fear.

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