EDITORIAL - Are surveys really effective?

Cebu City south district Representative Tomas Osmeña did not waste time firing the opening salvo during the first day of the local campaign last Monday. Osmeña said his reliable survey revealed that he is going to win against reelectionist Mayor Michael Rama in the coming election.

 Osmeña, the former mayor, admitted that Rama has more allies among barangay officials because of the service vehicles that Rama distributed to the barangays. But that, according to him, cannot make the incumbent mayor a sure winner come election day.

 The head of the Bando Osmeña Pundok Kauswagan boasted he still has the support from the voters in majority of the city’s barangays. In fact, he explained that even in barangays where the barangay captains are allied with Rama, majority of the residents are supporting the BOPK.

 Osmeña is entitled to his own opinion. The election, however, is still more than a month away and a lot of things are still bound to happen. Many do not believe in surveys. But the reason why candidates use them to rate their performance has something to do with psychology.

If a candidate is leading in surveys, he has high chances of getting the support of more voters during election because they always think he is winnable. That is why surveys, no doubt, are an effective tool to condition the minds of voters to vote for those on top of the list.            

  In firing the opening salvo announcing they are winning the race, Osmeña and the BOPK also launched a psychological attack against the Team Rama. And the tactic seems to work in their favor.

However, the winnability of the BOPK will still largely depend on how it wages the war. Rama and his team are still a giant force to reckon with. The public can even expect a dog-eat-dog battle in the coming days.