EDITORIAL - Ominous warning from China

A few days after the Philippines submitted for United Nations arbitration its territorial claims in the South China Sea, Chinese leader Xi Jinping came out publicly with what can only be a stinging rebuke of those who challenge its own claims in the area.

“No foreign country should ever nurse hopes that we will bargain over our core national interests, and nor should they nurse hopes that we will swallow the bitter fruit of harm to our country’s sovereignty, security and development interests,” Xi was quoted as saying.

Not only was the statement a rebuke, it was a clear warning. And while the Chinese leader did not mention any names, it is ominously clear for whom the rebuke and warning were intended, and they include us.

The Philippine bid for UN arbitration reportedly involves a compelling process that China cannot ignore despite its having repeatedly said it will never submit to. The big question now is just how compelling is the process in light of China’s clear intransigence.

Okay, granting China even submits to the process, what about the outcome? Will China ever submit to an adverse outcome? More importantly, if it does not submit, is there anything anyone can do to force the issue?

The United Nations has a long and glorious history of military intervention in areas of conflict. But never where it involved a superpower, especially a superpower that has already said in clear and intelligible English that it will never compromise its national interests.

United Nations military interventions in areas of conflict have almost always relied on the muscle of western democracies led by the United States, Great Britain and France. But will any of these countries, especially the US, lend muscle to the UN in this regard?

Bosnia, Sudan, Iraq, Afghanistan, Mali. In any or all of these countries, either or all of the big western powers have lent their interventionist might, with or without the UN flag. But none of these conflict areas is China.

China is the new enigma. Just where does China’s parameters lie? Judging by its actions in the South China Sea, it cannot be accused of pure bluster. Yet, being surrounded by potential enemies, it certainly must have its own line that it must never cross. That line must be found.