The Chinese Dream

US President Barack Obama signed yesterday a $633-billion defense spending law that he said “helps ensure that the United States will continue to have the strongest military in the world.”

The current thrust of the American defense strategy is its “pivot” to the Asia-Pacific amid China’s growing military strength and assertiveness in the region.

Chinese officials like to emphasize that there’s no contest between the two countries, that the cold war is over and they don’t intend to start another, and they are simply building up a defense capability commensurate with the size of their land mass and population.

National security these days, however, includes security in the resources a nation needs for survival and economic growth, from food to minerals and energy.

China’s neighbors see its assertiveness in staking its territorial claims in disputed seas as part of efforts to secure rich natural resources.

Two things have helped China in this area. One is its phenomenal economic growth in the past 30 years. As the world’s second largest economy, China can now afford to build up its defense capability to support its territorial claims.

The second is the United States’ diminished presence in its home region in the past years as it became preoccupied with the terrorist threat and other conflicts around the world. It’s no coincidence that the Chinese started building a garrison on Philippine-claimed Mischief or Panganiban Reef shortly after the US bases were shut down in our country.

This year we can expect more Chinese assertiveness in the region, as the new leadership under Xi Jinping promotes a so-called Chinese Dream. Unlike the American Dream with its focus on individual success, the Chinese one focuses on national glory.

What the Chinese Dream entails exactly – as Xi first espoused in late November last year – is unclear. It calls for a Chinese renaissance, a revival of the Chinese glory days that produced the “four great inventions” – paper, movable type, the compass and gunpowder.

Chinese officials have told me that under Xi, their economy and other aspects of society are being retooled to encourage innovation.

But those jittery over Beijing’s muscle flexing suspect that the Chinese idea of preeminence will inevitably include military power.

That smacks of trouble for countries such as ours that have felt China’s growing territorial assertiveness. Unable to match China’s military capability, these countries will unavoidably welcome the US pivot to the Asia-Pacific.

*  *  *

Last year China appropriated the equivalent of $106 billion for defense – an increase from the $91.5 billion 2011, and the first time that its defense spending breached the $100-billion mark. The 2011 budget, in turn, was 12.7 percent higher than in 2010. In 2000, the figure was $22.5 billion. By 2005, China had overtaken Japan in terms of defense spending in Asia.

Chinese officials point out that their defense spending, which accounts for about 40 percent of the total in Asia, corresponded to only 1.28 percent of GDP in 2011 while those of the US and Britain were higher than 2 percent.

Beijing wants to build up its naval capability, deploying its first aircraft carrier last year, and is developing stealth aircraft. It is also investing in space exploration.

The Chinese emphasize that their military spending is neither the largest nor the fastest growing in the world. They point out that India’s appropriation for the current year is 17 percent higher than the previous one while China’s increase is 11.2 percent. The two countries are feuding over a border area called Arunachal Pradesh by India and Southern Tibet by China.

Asia’s other military powers – India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan – have also increased their defense spending in the past years, although even if combined, the total will still be smaller than America’s. This year defense spending in Asia is expected to surpass Europe’s.

It’s China, however, that is involved in territorial disputes with most of its neighbors, including those like the Philippines whose land mass lies way beyond Chinese borders.

The Chinese say that in 2011, they spent $75 to protect each of their citizens and $9.72 to protect every square kilometer of land. Compare this to the $2,201 spent by the US to protect each of its citizens and $75.3 for each square kilometer of territory.

Certain organizations believe the actual numbers are larger for China’s defense spending. The Chinese insist that they have abided by the United Nations Standardized Instrument for Reporting Military Expenditures, which they joined in 2007.

*  *  *

The only one happy about these developments is the defense industry.

In 2010, for example, global military spending amounted to about $1.630 trillion, corresponding to 2.6 percent of global GDP, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The figure is a real-term increase of 50 percent since 2001. For 2011, the figure was placed at $1.738 trillion.

The US accounted for 41 percent of total world military spending in 2011. China came second with 8.2 percent, Russia with 4.1 percent, and the UK and France with 3.6 percent each.

From 2002 to 2011, North Africa registered the most rapid growth in military spending, followed by Eastern Europe, East Asia, Central and South Asia, and North America, according to the SIPRI.

The peace institute is one of the organizations that believes China’s defense spending is higher than officially reported.

For several of China’s neighbors, the figures do not matter as much as its actions in disputed waters. And so far, the atmosphere generated is threatening. China’s Dream cannot become its neighbors’ nightmare.