Force majeure

All too often, nature impresses us with its power.

Sandy began as a tropical hurricane when it ravaged the Caribbean evolved into a superstorm when it interacted with the cold front. When it hit the populous US Northeast, 7 million were left without power. The damage could run into the hundreds of billions of dollars.

Because the massive natural event happened so close to Halloween, American media took to calling it the Frankenstorm. To the trained weathermen, this was simply the perfect storm.

It might take centuries before humanity sees anything like this. The last time the US Northeast saw anything resembling this storm was 127 years ago.

Many factors need to combine to produce a natural event like Sandy.

The hurricane formed in the warm equatorial waters of the Atlantic late in the season. It curved north-northeast and might have headed to Europe were it not for the strong cold front, pushing the storm westwards. The weather event then turned back towards the US Northeast coast where it coupled with blistery winds coming down from Canada.

The whole event was boosted even further by the planetary alignments that created the highest tides. The tidal factor, the autumn winds and the snowy blizzards all converged to make this the perfect storm.

This time of the year, in the US Northeast, the weather is cold and snow blankets the land. The wayward hurricane produced soggy snow. The storm surges at high tide assured maximum damage. The coastal cities were quickly flooded. Subways were flooded and bridges shut down by the winds.

Sandy, by the time it landed on the coast of Virginia, was technically no longer a hurricane. A hurricane is a tropical weather phenomenon. What started as a hurricane morphed into something else, driven by cold weather factors. Because of its rarity, there is really no category for a weather event like this one. To Americans, this is simply a superstorm that happens because of a distinct confluence of factors.

At least 11 American states are under emergency conditions. Thousands of flights were cancelled. For only the second time in its history, the New York Stock Exchange shut down two consecutive days because of inclement weather.

The US Northeast is in a mess. Traffic is snarled. Airports are closed. Millions are trapped in their homes without heating. If the disruptions continue on for days, food supply might become an issue.

For a long time after this, experts will debate over whether this calamity is related to global warming. To be sure, no one wants an awesome natural event like this one to happen with regularity. Not even the most powerful nation on earth can ever be prepared to deal with a force majeure on this scale.

Tied

Nor are the experts prepared to conclusively predict the political repercussions of this frightening natural calamity.

Next Tuesday, Americans go to the polls to choose between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. The outcome is too close to call.

A couple of weeks ago, Obama appeared headed towards reelection. That is not as certain by the time Sandy landed. A strong Romney surge basically put the odds even at the time of the storm. Romney actually leads in Florida, a key battleground state. Recall that the vote in Florida brought George W. Bush to the presidency even if his rival won the popular vote nationwide.

At the minimum, the storm screwed up the campaign schedules of both candidates in the precious week before voting day. Campaign sorties were cancelled. Obama, the sitting president, withdrew to the White House to supervise the federal government’s response to the calamity.

Some analysts say that the image of Obama as a hands-on manager during a moment of calamity will help boost his prospects for election. Michele Obama reinforces that spin by announcing that dealing with the calamity is her husband’s priority.

Other analysts, however, argue that the calamity will highlight the weaknesses of the Obama presidency. Millions of voters are feeling more vulnerable and more miserable in the wake of the storm. Republicans are surely hoping that there will be a strong backlash in the aftermath of disaster.

This electoral battle, because of the nuances of presidential elections in the US where the outcome is decided on the number of electoral college votes and not on the popular vote, is centered on about four states: Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin and perhaps Colorado.

None of the handful of battleground states awards any of the two contenders a decisive lead. Everything, it seems, rests of the capacity of either party to fire up their voters enough to ensure a larger turnout of their respective voters at the polls.

If the storm lingers in the US Midwest, this could affect voter turnout. The contending parties are fretting over the possibilities. Both are putting their “ground campaign” on full throttle although that might be futile is transportation is bogged down and people are trapped in their homes.

The issues that figure in this election deeply divide Americans. There are distinct ideological divisions between the candidates on how to deal with the economy. Women and ethnic minorities figure as important voting blocs as they never have been.

The US Northeast, with its more liberal populations, generally delivers votes for the Democratic Party. The South is a Republican stronghold.

After all the debates, it will be ironic if this election is decided by a weather event. That is exactly what could happen, considering the profound effects of this superstorm.

Political outcomes are so vulnerable to non-political factors.