EDITORIAL - Blessing in disguise

If Cebu Governor Gwendolyn Garcia decides to abandon her bid for the Senate, it cannot

be for lack of qualification. In the qualifications category, Garcia should be way ahead of many of those in the running, regardless of party affiliation.

But there is the rub. It is in the party affiliation that Garcia could become a victim of Philippine political realities. Garcia is running in 2013, a midterm election year, which is not always a good time to run if you happen to be affiliated with the opposition, which she is.

A midterm election is not a presidential election year. That means the president is by no means under any threat and is thus free to use all the powers vested in the presidency to support his candidates. It is for this reason midterm elections almost always favor the administration.

By the same token, a presidential election year almost always favors the opposition in a country like the Philippines where there is no reelection for a sitting president. A presidential election year in a no-reelection country augurs almost certain change. Good for the opposition.

This is the heavy baggage Garcia will have to carry in 2013, regardless of whether, as stated earlier, she is highly qualified to become a senator regardless of election year. The odds are simply stacked much higher against the opposition in a midterm election year.

Just look at how almost everybody is chasing the administration bandwagon. And just look at how gleefully the administration is taking almost everyone in, regardless of whether many of them are notorious for being opportunistic turncoats.

An unfettered president with unencumbered access to the vast resources at his disposal is a most powerful adversary to clash against. With neither his presidency nor his mandate on the line, the president can make a goat win if he wants.

Seen in this light, maybe it is best for Garcia to cool her heels for a while and wait for 2016 to resume her bid for the Senate. By then, it will be a presidential election year. In a country with no reelection for president, the opposition is almost naturally expected to win.

A run for Congress in the third district, where she is now registered, could turn out to be more propitious for Garcia. It is a much easier campaign to win and she can continue to serve Cebuanos in another capacity. And all the while, she buys time to re-chart her direction.