Voice of America on the South China Sea

Our weaknesses as a nation have been shown up by the way we tackled the South China Sea problem. It has less to do with being united than it has with poor leadership. Think of it. If we do not have the capability to go to war with China and the US will not fight for us, why do we persist on this warpath? It is not the only option available.

We are in the 21st century and there are any number of combinations of diplomatic maneuvering, some of them old and some still untried. Why should we be stuck with the language of gunboat diplomacy of the 19th century?

Vietnam, another claimant, makes noises but it does not put its eggs in one basket. Not only is it better equipped militarily to saber rattle but when it does it is respected because it suffered a war of attrition with the US and won.

The Philippines is seen as provoking a war by buying second-hand military equipment and a background of US dependency. The world has forgotten that this is the country that challenged two superpowers one after the other in quick succession. If we do not care about that history why should anyone? Today, our presidents are made in the US of A and we think it is a joke.

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I read this article from the Voice of America blog about “Challenging Beijing in the South China Sea” that might help clarify certain misconceptions of ‘patriotic’ Filipinos.

It notes that Hanoi and Manila have taken different approaches and it is important for us to understand the difference.

Vietnam does not rely on a single power or country. Instead “it is strengthening military ties with the United States (its former enemy), India, Singapore, Japan, Australia, and Russia, building what Joshua Kurlantzick of the US Council on Foreign Relations calls a “web of ad hoc bilateral relationships to shore up their security.”

“The strategy here is that Vietnam will use many different partners in order to back itself up. Who are our other partners?

“Vietnam is in a stronger position than the Philippines simply because for years the Armed Forces of Philippines basically did nothing to upgrade its navy,” the article adds.

Worse improving its military comes at a wrong time. It is seen as a provocation when it should have been a continuing government policy whatever the administration.

Filipino President Benigno Aquino III is trying to catch up, placing an order for more attack helicopters. but others see this as too little, too late.

Vietnam and the Philippines also differ in their diplomatic approach after the failure of an Asean communiqué.

“While Vietnam looks to other solutions weaker nations such as the Philippines are trying to broaden the mediation effort by taking the dispute to the United Nations,” the article adds.

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“That move has little support in Washington, says Bonnie Glaser, a senior fellow on China studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). She says the Obama administration is pushing instead for direct code-of-conduct talks between China and ASEAN. (CNP: This should get more prominent coverage in Philippine media.)

“The United States doesn’t view this as a US-China issue,” Glaser says. “Taking it to the UN would make it seem like a US-China issue because none of the other permanent Security Council members really have any stake in this issue at all.”

“The Philippines is throwing everything at the wall because they are in the weakest position and they want to see what sticks,” Kurlantzick says. “You have senior Philippine national security officials coming repeatedly to the US and asking for certain types of upgrades. You have them sort of trying to maneuver the US into confirming that because of our relationship with them in the past, the South China Sea would come under that Mutual Defense Treaty.”

The Philippines strength comes from what is taken for granted – its democratic structure. “Though weaker militarily, Kurlantzick says the Philippines has a more open and democratic political system than Vietnam and is less susceptible to public anger over Chinese aggression.” Although there are some Filipinos eager to foment anger, there are few takers.

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“Countries are worried about US staying power, about whether or not there will be a counter-weight to China,” Glaser says. “We are trying to say, ‘Yes. We will be there to ensure peace and security in the region.’

But that is only part of the equation. It has its problematic part and this is what Filipino officials should take note of.

“It’s problematic because we don’t want to embolden other countries to engage in a confrontation with China.”

Glaser makes it clear that if it does it would be an unintended consequence of the Asia Pivot.

This is Glaser’s explanation.

“Perhaps some of the actions taken by the Philippines might not have been taken if this series of events had taken place at a time when the United States was not seeking to refocus on Asia.

“When we are asked by President Aquino to say something more forcefully about how we will defend the Philippines if it is attacked, this puts the US in a very difficult position,” the CSIS regional expert says.

“We don’t want to leave the Philippines in a weak position. But at the same time we don’t want to tell the Philippines, ‘We’ve got your back.’” The US dilemma is more important than whether we are united behind the Aquino government’s policy no matter how misguided.

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It is good that the defense attaché of the Chinese embassy said that a “frank dialogue” would help achieve a peaceful resolution of the territorial dispute and resumption of friendly relations between the Philippines and China. It is an opportunity we must take not the least because it is a good counterpoint to US prevarication.

“Defense Minister General Liang Guanglie and Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin reached a three-point consensus on Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal and the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Defense Ministers Meeting in Cambodia last May,” Air Force Senior Col. Chen Fangming said.

I think it is better than saber rattling when we do not have the capability. The Philippines should explore all diplomatic possibilities by keeping the communications lines open with China.

“The consensus was achieved because each side used restraint in words and actions that would only escalate the issue,” Chen added.