Friendship days

As in previous years, the US embassy held its Fourth of July reception a day ahead last night, to give embassy personnel a chance to enjoy the American holiday today.

Several ambassadors and Philippine officials were absent because the reception coincided with a dinner hosted by President Aquino at Malacañang for Queen Sofia of Spain. Among the ambassadors at the US reception were those of China, Israel, Norway, Singapore and Vietnam.

The Queen’s visit comes amid weeklong activities following the celebration of Philippines-Spain Friendship Day on June 30. Among the activities is the exhibit of Philippine maps dating back to the Spanish colonial era. The maps, provided by collectors from several countries, show Panatag Shoal (also called Panacot) as part of the territory of the Philippine islands.

Over in General Santos and Sarangani, Philippine and US Navy and Coast Guard personnel are conducting the Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training joint exercises, to test the Coast Watch South project. CARAT has been conducted regularly by the two countries in the past years, but this is the first time that the drills are being held in Mindanao waters.

Both sides have emphasized that the joint drills have nothing to do with the territorial dispute between the Philippines and China over Panatag Shoal off Zambales.

Both sides have also stressed that the recent port visits of US submarines (twice within a month) in Subic Bay, which for nearly a century served as a naval base for the Americans, were also not connected to the dispute over Panatag.

Noticeably lacking is any public outcry over the visit of nuclear-powered submarines. Perhaps most Filipinos have read the Constitution and decided that Section 8 on State Policies, which commits the nation to pursue “a policy of freedom from nuclear weapons in its territory,” is limited to weaponry and excludes nuclear-powered vessels.

Perhaps most Filipinos don’t care. Or perhaps most Filipinos do care, and prefer to have a nuclear-powered American submarine near Panatag rather than a diesel-electric-powered Chinese sub exploring the shoal’s lagoon for more endangered corals and marine species to harvest.

China’s muscle-flexing in the region is driving the Philippines, like it or not, closer to the only country that can provide a counterweight to the growing military power of Asia’s dragon. China has 2,000 combat aircraft; we have a handful of... trainer jets. Who else can we turn to at this time, while we’re rushing to develop minimum credible air defense capability, but Uncle Sam?

Washington has announced a shift in its military focus from the Middle East and thereabouts to the Asia-Pacific, where North Korea and its closest ally China are raising security concerns. Joint drills between the US and South Korea are increasing.

In the previous century, Japan and then the Soviet Union posed challenges to America’s rise as a superpower and the dominant naval presence in Asia. This time East Asia has its own emerging power.

Stratfor, a Texas-based privately owned provider of global intelligence and geopolitical analysis, reported last week that China currently has over 60 submarines, with the number expected to rise to around 75 within about a decade – slightly more than the US. The top-of-the-line Chinese submarines and surface warships are reportedly armed with long-range anti-ship missiles and advanced air defense weapons.

At its current buildup, Stratfor estimates that China will soon have more warships than the US Seventh Fleet in the Western Pacific.

In 2010 China overtook South Korea as the world’s largest shipbuilder, according to Stratfor.

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Western analysts have often pointed out that it will take years before China can have the human combat capability to challenge the US. Those threatened by China’s recent aggressive moves are hoping this analysis isn’t mere wishful thinking.

Chinese officials used to say that they didn’t intend to challenge US military presence in the region. Why, they asked, would they want armed conflict at this time? The officials said they preferred to concentrate on economic development – something they have achieved with impressive success during three decades without a major war in Asia.

Today, however, in the light of recent developments in the waters around China, no one is sure if this attitude has changed. For clarity in this matter, the world may have to wait until a new leadership takes over in China this October.

The Philippine Constitution declares that the nation “adheres to the policy of peace, equality, justice, freedom, cooperation and amity with all nations.”

It’s too bad that this declared principle is being tested in our ties with China, which have been friendly since Manila established diplomatic ties with Beijing under its Communist Party in June 1975.

With a pitifully underequipped military, the Philippine government is now scrambling to upgrade the nation’s capability at least to monitor its territorial waters.

We can’t even verify exactly how many Chinese ships are in Panatag, shooing away our fishermen. In this sorry state, there are Filipinos who will appreciate more US submarines (all of them are nuclear-powered) surfacing in the West Philippine Sea.

On Philippine-American Friendship Day, it seems the prevailing sentiment here is that we can use all the help we can get.

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