Conviction or acquittal?

The betting is on. After almost five months of marathon-like impeachment trial done by the Senate on Chief Justice Renato Corona, the matter is reduced to betting on whether he would be acquitted or convicted. But even early on during the impeachment trial, there were already opinion surveys on acquittal or conviction of Corona.

As I’ve said before, and I am saying it again, it’s a battle for the hearts and minds of the people. And this administration made sure this battle is won for this Palace-initiated impeachment battle to oust Corona at all cost. President Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III could not afford to lose face in his single-minded campaign to remove Corona as the personification of his fight against corruption.

Unfortunately for the Chief Justice, public opinion has already galvanized against him, based on the survey results released separately by professional pollsters Social Weather Stations (SWS) and Pulse Asia.

In the most recent SWS survey done from March 10-13, 1,200 respondents by random sampling across the country were asked: “Would you like the Senate decision to be guilty or not guilty?” With plus or minus three percent margin of error, the results showed 73 percent voted for conviction of Corona as against 25 percent answered “not guilty.”

Pulse Asia, on the other hand, showed 47 percent of Filipinos think Corona is guilty of the charges filed against him while only 43 percent are ambivalent as regards his innocence or guilt. The survey period was from Feb. 26 to March 9.

Obviously, both opinion surveys were premature to say the least. The opinions would naturally reflect public response during the survey period. That coincided with the prosecution panel having first crack to present their case before the impeachment court. The prosecution panel started last January 18 and argued their case against Corona for the next 24 days of the impeachment trial.

The defense panel took their turn last March 12 and was given a total of 16 days to rebut the charges against the Chief Justice. With no less than Corona himself as their final witness, the defense wrapped up their case last Friday.

But more than the impeachment trial, the survey results reflected heavily the accusations hurled against Corona outside the court through media and press conferences of the prosecution panel and presidential statements issued all over the place.

So for all intents and purposes, Corona has already been convicted before the bar of public opinion long before he could even present his side. That is based on previous SWS and Pulse Asia survey results.

Thanks, or no thanks to the impeachment proceedings that were aired live on television and radio stations throughout the 42 trial days. TV is a very cruel medium as it plays out the entire human drama before the eyes and ears of the public.

In an unexpected twist, Corona agreed to heed calls for him to testify before the impeachment court on the condition Ombudsman Conchita Carpio-Morales and four other individuals would be summoned as “hostile” witnesses of the defense panel. Corona wanted the Ombudsman to hurl the same accusations before the impeachment court his supposed dollar accounts amounting to $12 million as “leaked” to the media.

Through a Powerpoint presentation, Morales testified and came up with 82 purported dollar accounts of Corona she showed in a diagram that had a total of $12 million in transaction value. But since these charges were not included in the articles of impeachment, the Ombudsman said this may be considered an early notice for a new set of impeachment complaint against Corona by December this year. That is, if the Chief Justice gets acquitted.

Earlier describing Morales’ Powerpoint presentation as a “lantern of lies,” Corona disputed the data provided by the Anti-Money Laundering Council. Aided by a technical staff of his office, Corona presented to the Senator-judges his own Powerpoint presentation to debunk it.

Whether Corona’s gambit paid off or not, we shall see later on. Well, if you can’t beat them, join them, ain’t it so Mr. Chief Justice? What are we in Power’s Point? (Pun intended.)

For maximum dramatic impact, Corona signed a conditional waiver to open all his peso and dollar accounts provided all the 188 congressmen who signed the impeachment complaint against him and Senator-judge Franklin Drilon would similarly sign a waiver.

But Corona abruptly cut short his testimony when he felt hypoglycemic attack and excused himself without waiting for Senate president Juan Ponce Enrile to grant his wish. And as he warned prior to the start of the impeachment trial, Enrile did not allow any walkout from his court.

Faced with adverse public opinion generated by his sudden walking away from the impeachment trial, the Chief Justice returned to the witness stand last Friday against his doctors’ advice. Corona signed a new waiver, this time without any condition. He admitted he has P80 million in peso deposits in co-mingled funds that are not his and only $2.4 million in foreign currency deposits which he did not declare in his statement of assets, liabilities and net worth (SALN). To his credit, Corona finally put an end to these questions. Citing the legal and constitutional grounds why he did not declare these bank accounts in his annual SALNs, the Chief Justice now left his fate in the hands of the Senator-judges.

Conviction requires 16 Senators to vote against Corona. From my own reckoning, these Senator-judges would include Liberal Party (LP) allies of P-Noy, namely, Franklin Drilon, Francis Escudero, Teofista Guingona III, Serge Osmeña, Ralph Recto, Francis Pangilinan, Edgardo Angara, Panfilo Lacson, Antonio Trillanes IV, and Aquilino Pimentel III.

I guess the following would vote for Corona’s acquittal-Senator-judges Miriam Defensor-Santiago, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., Manny Villar, Ramon Revilla Jr., and Joker Arroyo.

With other considerations outside the impeachment court, I guess Senate minority leader Alan Peter Cayetano and Lito Lapid have bargaining chips with the Aquino administration.

I feel the swing votes would come from Enrile, Senate president pro tempore Jinggoy Estrada, Senate majority leader Vicente Sotto III, Gregorio Honasan, Loren Legarda, and Pia Cayetano.

Corona obviously tried to sway public opinion to his side. Will this be in vain? This we will see when the Senator-judges finally cast their votes by tomorrow either for his conviction or acquittal. Your bet is as good as mine.