EDITORIAL - Numbers game

Some analysts on TV say the 10 senators who voted to reject the Supreme Court TRO against opening the dollar accounts of Chief Justice Corona in connection with his impeachment trial at the Senate are likely to vote the same way, meaning for conviction, on judgment day.

The 10 who voted no to the SC TRO are Franklin Drilon, Sergio Osmeña III, Edgardo Angara, Panfilo Lacson, Francis Pangilinan, Antonio Trillanes, Teofisto Guingona III, Pia Cayetano, Alan Peter Cayetano, and Lito Lapid.

The 13 who voted yes to respect the TRO are Juan Ponce Enrile, Miriam Santiago, Bongbong Marcos, Joker Arroyo, Manny Villar, Ralph Recto, Francis Escudero, Koko Pimentel, Gringo Honasan, Bong Revilla, Tito Sotto, Jinggoy Estrada, and Loren Legarda.

The same analysts, however, would not say if the 13 who voted in favor of Corona on the matter of his bank accounts would still vote the same way, meaning for acquittal, when it comes time for the Senate to render its verdict.

The names of the senators and the manner in which they voted are mentioned here because the Senate itself wished to make known how the members voted. As to how they will eventually vote on the fate of Corona is, however, too speculative to consider any mention of names.

What may be safe to speculate at this point is that, based on how they voted, as well as what is known of their politics and the body language they have shown so far, it will be far easier for Corona to be acquitted than convicted, based not on the evidence but on the numbers.

The Senate only has 23 sitting senators after Noynoy Aquino became president. But under the law, conviction requires a full two-thirds vote of all senators, with the reckoning based on the number of seats in the senate, not how many are actually sitting.

Based on that formula, a two-thirds vote would still mean 16 despite there being only 23 senators actually sitting. In order for the magic number 16 not to be acquired and thus convict Corona, those for acquittal need only to have eight.

The 10 who voted against the TRO therefore need to get six from the 13, which seems to be a very tall order, although not impossible. It is far easier for the 13 to lose five and still keep the eight needed to prevent a 16 the other way.