Terror threat

The best intelligence agents are unsung heroes. It’s hard to take credit for something that never happened, even if the story is that a tragedy was prevented.

Intel and security officials can earn bragging rights only if someone is actually arrested and evidence presented to prove that a plot was hatched, discovered and foiled.

This was what happened in the case of the Afghan immigrant in Denver who was arrested before he could plant a bomb in Manhattan’s subway system.

The US Federal Bureau of Investigation was tipped off that Najibullah Zazi and three of his accomplices, also immigrants, were buying large amounts of certain chemical substances in supermarkets around Denver, Colorado. One supermarket CCTV recording, which I watched at the FBI office in Denver last year, showed Zazi pushing a shopping cart full of large containers of hydrogen peroxide and acetone.

FBI agents tapped the suspects’ phones over several months and trailed them. When Zazi and his accomplices were finally arrested and presented with the evidence, it was hard to deny the suicide bombing plot. On Feb. 22, 2010, Zazi pleaded guilty. The two foreign al-Qaeda operatives who prosecutors said ordered the bomb attack were reportedly killed later in a drone strike outside the United States.

In the case of the purported terror threat in Metro Manila, the government will have to come up soon with an arrested suspect plus solid evidence like the one on the New York subway plot.

Otherwise, security authorities would lose face and credibility.

And their boss the President and commander-in-chief would have exposed himself to ridicule for falling for what could have been a bum steer.

The next time a similar warning is issued, security officials (and the President, if he still hasn’t learned his lesson) could find themselves suffering the fate of the boy who cried wolf.

As long as it simply embarrasses the officials, there’s no cause for public concern. The problem is if the threat is real and people refuse to take precautions, and tragedy strikes.

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The presidential warning was clearly ignored by the vast throng that participated in the Black Nazarene procession.

This was just as well, because if the participants had stayed away, the terrorists  if the plot was true  would have already scored one victory. Terrorism is meant to disrupt normal life, and making devotees stay away from the biggest religious procession in the country would have been a major victory for those who are out to paralyze society with fear.

That’s one reason why security officials in other countries  and presidents in particular  avoid warning their citizens to cancel certain activities because of a security threat. Instead alert levels are raised, security measures such as bag checks are intensified, and people are urged to be vigilant about suspicious individuals and packages.

While the public does its part, security personnel must find the purported plotters and gather solid evidence that can lead to their conviction.

In the case of the alleged terror plot, the public was informed that several raids conducted around Metro Manila during the Black Nazarene feast yielded neither suspects nor explosives.

That TV appearance by President Aquino, flanked by his security officials (some looked so glum), warning about the terror threat elicited various reactions, but I don’t know anyone who actually felt scared. Obviously, the Nazarene devotees were either fearless or prepared to die for their faith.

A more common reaction was puzzlement. Why was the president of the republic himself issuing such a warning? Only last year P-Noy was openly fulminating against foreign governments (the US in particular) for issuing travel advisories about a terror threat in the Philippines. Those nasty foreigners, P-Noy huffed, were sabotaging his early efforts to attract investors and tourists.

This time there he was, issuing the warning himself. The government, we were told, received the intel on the terror plot as early as August last year. Wasn’t that around the same time that those nasty foreign governments issued their travel advisories?

When the Nazarene procession finally ended with no bomb attack, the puzzlement turned to jokes, and questions about what got into P-Noy.

As of yesterday, security officials were still insisting that the threat was real and in fact ongoing, with two distinct intelligence units coming up with the same information.

P-Noy should tell his security officials to stop dragging him into their work. They should do their job quietly, and if any warning is to be issued, it should be made by no one higher than a Cabinet member. If the intel proves faulty and the threat turns out to be a dud  always a possibility even under the best circumstances in the intelligence community  then the one who gets egg on his face will not be the commander-in-chief.

The worst speculation, as people joked about the “firing squad” TV appearance on the eve of the procession, was that P-Noy was laying the groundwork for something more expected from someone like the late Ferdinand Marcos.

I doubt if the only son of Ninoy and Cory Aquino liked that speculation at all.

P-Noy should learn his lesson from this episode. If he’s worried about public safety, he should see to it that long-term measures are in place to reduce the risks of terrorism. He must see to it that security forces have the capability to thwart a major threat. These measures must be done without causing public alarm.

In fighting terrorism, it’s good to bear in mind that when life can’t go on as usual, the terrorists have won.