Early warning

All presidents say it, notably when their approval ratings start declining: they are not engaged in a popularity contest.

It’s the sensible thing to say, especially for a president who’s good for only one term and is expected not to scheme to perpetuate himself in power.

It’s also a sensible thing to say, especially when approval and trust ratings, although suffering an unsurprising dip, are both still at 71 percent, according to Pulse Asia’s survey from May 21 to June 4. President Aquino also obtained a 64 percent satisfaction rating in a survey taken June 3 to 6 by Social Weather Stations Inc. (SWS) – down from 69 percent in March.

Those ratings are still stratospheric and enviable for anyone who’s been in power for a year in this fractious land. As SWS pointed out, the satisfaction ratings (with 18 percent dissatisfaction unchanged from March) were still in the “good” and “very good” ranges across all areas and classes nationwide.

A popular president finds it easier to make the nation swallow bitter pills – and there are a lot that this country needs to swallow.

A popular president also finds it easier to get political support, even among seemingly staunch opponents. Philippine politicians are practical types; they align themselves with whomever they think the public supports. They are like bamboo; they bend with the shifting winds of public opinion.

Just consider the fortunes of that accomplished political acrobat, Joey Salceda, and those who did not jump ship in the dying days of the Arroyo presidency. A few months ago, one lawmaker closely identified with the previous administration sighed, “Nobody loves us anymore.”

In Congress, a president’s popularity, as reflected in surveys, is almost as important as his handling of the pork barrel in pushing through his legislative agenda. The typical Pinoy politician knows enough not to lock horns with a president when 71 percent of the population thinks he’s on the right path.

But the straight path or daang matuwid of the Liberal Party presidential campaign has been perceived to be zigging and zagging lately, leading to that dip in P-Noy’s ratings.

Because of the advantages cited above in being a popular president, the dip should not be entirely ignored by Malacañang.

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The surveys can be quite clear on where the promised straight path zigged or zagged.

In a previous survey that marked the first significant fall in the President’s ratings, the biggest beef of the respondents was P-Noy’s acquisition of a Porsche. Never mind if the sports car was “pre-owned” and supposedly paid for with P-Noy’s own money. The criticism lingers because to this day, the papers for the Porsche have not been made public, reinforcing rumors that it was in fact a gift from a political supporter who is a potential influence peddler.

P-Noy obviously remains puzzled (and miffed) by the furor and refuses to let go of the controversial Porsche. He is a known luxury car aficionado and used to drive a BMW, and was even photographed behind the wheel during the campaign without his image of simple living being affected. So what’s the fuss about a second-hand sports car?

Other quarters have pointed out that the fuss is mainly because the bar for exemplary behavior is set much higher for the only son of Ninoy and Cory Aquino.

Noynoy Aquino, thrust by circumstances into the presidency, may genuinely be looking forward to the final day of his current job so he can get his life back. But it’s a job many other people would die (or kill) for. And to cite an old admonition, to whom much is given, much is also expected. P-Noy can’t afford to be insensitive to public expectations, unreasonable those expectations might seem to be.

The recent dip in his ratings is being attributed by critics to his “KKK” – for kakampi, kaklase and kabarilan (allies, classmates and shooting buddies). But the Pulse Asia survey showed P-Noy garnering his lowest disapproval rating (9 percent) where this criticism should be reflected – in “strengthening the people’s trust in the government and its officials.”

P-Noy’s highest disapproval ratings concerned economic matters: controlling inflation (29 percent) and reducing poverty (21 percent). Disapproval was also high (17 percent) in improving workers’ pay.

His highest public approval rating was in fighting criminality (60 percent) followed by equal enforcement of the law and improving peace (both 57 percent).

Public reaction to KKK criticisms are probably muted by the knowledge that all presidents have recruited officials from within their close circles. During Cory Aquino’s presidency, she picked human rights advocates and leaders of the opposition against Ferdinand Marcos. Fidel Ramos extensively tapped retired military and police officers.

As one official famously observed during the administration of Joseph Estrada, “weather-weather lang yan.” There’s a season for Kamag-anak, Inc., for recycled military officers, for drinking and gambling buddies, for “his and hers” buddies. Every president has his or her own set of cronies.

Criticisms about P-Noy’s KKK gain traction only when the officials in question are seen to lack the competence for the job. The daang matuwid is supposed to promote a meritocracy.

Rewarding the incompetent and mediocre with government positions simply because they belong to his trusted circle can only erode public trust in the President.

Worse, it opens him to accusations that he is looking the other way when mediocre and incompetent friends engage in anomalous activities.

The further dip in his ratings is no cause for panic. But it should be considered an early warning, indicating areas for improvement.

While the presidency is not a popularity contest, it helps to be popular.