Reality must underscore military policy

The Philippines, stung by Chinese aggression in the contested Spratly Islands, said it will purchase more weapons and equipment to beef up its armed forces. Noynoy Aquino, trying to sound brave, said developments in the Spratlys will spark an arms race in the South China Sea.

But it is one thing to sound brave, another to be realistic. Noynoy cannot just talk himself into military parity with the other claimants to the Spratlys without first checking his facts.

The situation the Philippines faces in the Spratlys, whose other claimants aside from China include Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei, cannot be dealt with in the same manner that Noynoy has chosen to deal with poverty — which is by simply giving money to the poor.

Even if the Philippines spends the entire half of its P1.7 trillion budget on military purchases, which of course it cannot do, it will still not be enough to put it in parity with the other militaries embroiled in the Spratly controversy.

Viewed realistically, the Philippines has a military that simply pales in comparison to those of China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei. With the exception of an ill-equipped and poorly trained Army, the Philippines almost virtually has no Air Force and Navy to speak of.

Even if the Philippines embarks on a massive military spending spree, which I seriously doubt it has the money to pursue — and granting all the money goes to the intended purpose — it will still be like starting from the very beginning.

By contrast, all the other Spratly claimants already have respectably modern and advanced armed armed forces even without having to match Philippine intentions by embarking on aggressive military spending of their own.

All these other claimant countries have to do is sustain the current levels of their military spending and the Philippines, which is still trying to jump back into the game by starting from square one, will never be able to keep in step.

I have not been able to obtain data about Brunei, but consider these defense budgets for 2011 of the other Spratly claimants: China - $91.5 billion; Taiwan - $9.27 billion; Malaysia - $2.93 billion; Vietnam - $2.6 billion.

The Philippines, with a budget of $2.4 billion, may not be far off than either Malaysia or Vietnam. But that is if we consider only the 2011 budget. The picture changes dramatically in light of the fact that we are only about to start while they are way ahead and in full stride.

I am not saying that we abandon all plans of trying to attain a respectable military. In fact I have always been critical of the way the Philippines has been giving a very low priority to military spending for modernization.

But I do not believe any plan for military modernization by the Philippines should be shaped and dictated by developments in the Spratlys, which is how I understand the brave but hollow rhetoric of our commander-in-chief.

If the Philippines has to have a credible armed forces, let it be as a matter of prudent and realistic national policy, not as a reaction to provocations by far more superior military forces whose interests are converged on the Spratly issue.

As far as the Spratly issue is concerned, the Philippines does not possess the military option to be a credible contender. Its most viable option is diplomacy, and one that is anchored by our continued friendship with the only superpower that can keep China in check — the US.

The US, of course, will have to look out for its own interests first, such as making sure the Spratlys do not pose as a threat to open sealanes in the region, and may not be as ready to come to our aid as we would like to believe. But aside from the US, who do we really have?