Armed presence

Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guanglie was in town over the weekend. He is the guy who runs the day-to-day affairs of the People’s Liberation Army, the largest standing army in the world.

Analysts say he is fourth in the pecking order of the ruling Communist Party of China. In short, he is in the inner circle of strategic policy-making in the largest nation of the world. In a few short years, as projections go, China will also be the world’s largest economy.

Liang, clearly, is a very important man to talk to — and to impress with our own ideas about the region’s strategic future.

If it were Liang’s American counterpart breezing into town, our local leftists might have honored him with a demonstration, complete with the usual effigies burned. But our local leftists, who stage a demonstration at the drop of the hat, were silent on the eve (and the course of) of Liang’s visit. A long tradition of obeisance and material dependence on the Communist Party of China hangs heavily on our own communists’ decision about who to publicly ridicule by way of a noisy march in the streets.

It is not only our local communists who appeared to be underplaying this visit. In the days preceding the visit, nothing came out of Edwin Lacierda’s much-touted “information loop” about what might be taken up during the visit. We have not been told what the talking points were and what our government might want to take up with the visiting dignitary.

In those days preceding the visit of a senior official of a problematic regional power, Lacierda was busy blaming critical columnists for the drastic (and continuing) drop in President Aquino’s approval rating. Oh, for the good old days: it used to be our government blamed every misfortune on the communists; now they just blame the columnists.

Because there was nothing in the Lacierda “loop”, we do not know if our government was at all prepared to take advantage of this visit and wring something substantial from it, something substantial for our national security or at least something substantial to keep us from being constantly humiliated by China’s humungous military.

Late last week, our two functioning OV-10 Broncos were on routine patrol in Philippine airspace close to the disputed Spratlys. The pilots reported being buzzed by Chinese fighter planes. Presumably, our turbo-props retreated in the face of superior force. The Broncos, little more than toy planes, were overmatched. Besides, there are too few of them left and every precaution must be taken to keep the antique planes safe.

Malacanang’s response to the incident was painfully habitual. The incident was to be “investigated” and our Air Force was instructed to gather more intelligence inputs. But what was there to investigate? Wasn’t it our own pilots who reported being “buzzed” by intruders?

The habitual call for further investigation, of course, spares the Palace from filing a diplomatic protest over the incident. The present leadership, we know, dreads having to displease Beijing. Our cowardice in the face of Beijing’s power disappoints our other regional neighbors.

We could at least have seized the coincidence of the buzzing incident and Liang’s visit to articulate a clear policy on the disputed territory. We might have used the opportunity to say, in accordance with the Asean policy on peaceful resolution of the dispute, that we will no longer tolerate Chinese armed presence so close to our borders.

We might not, as our Air Force is first to proclaim, have the means to do anything about it. But at least we might find the courage to lay down a clear policy. After all, we have a President who will dare say anything anytime — and a spokesman capable of blurting out the most ridiculous theories about how the world works.

Conspiracy theory

In the face of Malacanang’s continuing (although probably futile) effort to have elections in the ARMM postponed and the way cleared for Imperial Manila’s appointment of OICs, a new conspiracy theory gains currency in the area.

The conspiracy theory revolves around the well-known closeness of the Sema and Ampatuan families. Rep. Bai Sandra Sema is one of the very few Muslim politicians backing HB 4146, which contains the Malacanang formula for postponement of elections and appointment of OICs. She, in turn, is perceived to be very close to Interior Secretary Jesse Robredo.

The new conspiracy says that if Malacanang gets its way, it will be the Ampatuan-Sema-Robredo axis that will be key to the appointment of people to the erstwhile elective posts. The vaunted command vote networks in the region, centered on the Ampatuan warlord clan, will be conserved and put at the service of the Liberal Party. It will be warlord politics as usual despite all that has been said about “reforming” ARMM politics.

Sen. Francis Escudero might have caught a whiff of the prevalent conspiracy theory during his consultations in the autonomous region. He demanded to know immediately, before he votes one way or the other on the question at hand, who Malacanang intends to appoint OICs at the various ARMM posts.

Whoever Malacanang intends to appoint, the Muslim leaders warn, will be received with great distrust by the population of the region. They will be seen as surrogates of a resurgent internal colonialism. Former Sulu governor Almarin Tillah describes the planned postponement of polls as a plot for the wholesale “disenfranchisement” of Muslim voters.

This week, candidates for the regularly scheduled elections should be filing their candidacies. The Comelec is obliged, in the absence of any law postponing the elections, to accept the filings.

Malacanang’s efforts to pressure the Senate into passing its versions of HB 4146, meanwhile, has run against a strong bloc of veteran senators wary of approving a measure that could be ruled constitutionally untenable.