Stalemate

The saddest thing in this week of mourning is that Gadhafi still sits in Tripoli, inflicting so much horror on his people and now hurtling cluster munitions on rebellious cities.

From every angle, the situation in Libya is now in a stalemate. Neither the pro-Gadhafi forces nor the revolutionaries could manage to gain significant ground. Libya could remain a divided country for a long time.

NATO air strikes cleared out Gadhafi’s air defenses and much of his armor. Large sections of the Libyan army defected to the side of the rebels. The best-armed and best-trained units, however, are the militias controlled by Gadhafi’s sons. They are ranged against ill-disciplined and untrained revolutionaries composed mainly of young urban professionals who picked up weapons.

In the face of international isolation, Gadhafi and his sons appear determined to tough it out — even if they need to massacre rebellious populations and level seditious cities to the ground. The best outcome they could reasonably wish for is the stalemate we now see on the battlefield, inevitably requiring an agreed ceasefire and a negotiated conclusion.

The NATO-led forces miscalculated. They expected that after a few bombing runs, Gadhafi’s army would break and run, demoralized generals wound hang Gadhafi themselves and Libyans would live happily ever after.

That did not happen. When the democratic uprising was at its height, it seemed ordinary Libyan citizens will take the cities with ease. This was, after all, what happened in Tunisia and Egypt.

Gadhafi, however, is cut from a different cloth. Initially thrown aback, he has regrouped his fighting units and counter-attacked with ferocity, nearly taking back the second city of Benghazi were it not for the late-hour aerial intervention of the NATO forces.

Today, the line between the western part of Libya controlled by Gadhafi and the eastern part controlled by the revolutionaries is drawn on the sand somewhere on the outskirts of the oil town of Brega. There the rebels mount badly conceived offensives only to be thrown back by the more disciplined Gadhafi militias.

Only the third largest Libyan city of Misrata, near Tripoli, continues to be under rebel control and resists daily bombardment by Gadhafi forces. Misrata might not be able to resist for very long given the relentlessness and ruthlessness of the attacks mounted by Gadhafi’s forces.

Instead of Gadhafi’s inner circle breaking up as NATO anticipated after the defection of a ranking Gadhafi ally, it is the NATO consensus that now seems to be breaking. After participating in the early air assaults, the US has withdrawn from the Libyan theater, preferring this to become a European problem.

The French and the British appeared the most enthusiastic in helping resolve the Libyan impasse in favor of the revolutionaries. Paris went ahead to recognize the revolutionary council based in Benghazi. The other Europeans, however, did not share the same enthusiasm for what could be a long drawn-out military engagement.

At this point, only Qatar and the UAE appear willing to send material aid to the rebel leadership in Benghazi. Both the African Union and the Arab League are now exploring a way to end the stalemate in Libya through diplomacy. Other Arab leaders are worrying about the contagious effects of the popular uprisings that have happened.

While the coalition dillies and dallies, Gadhafi maintains his ruthless campaign of suppression against the dissident population centers.

Good idea

Shortly after the Japan earthquake, numerous hoax messages circulated through SMS, causing some degree of panic especially in our schools. A number of people I know stayed indoors for days, fearful of the radiation that was supposed to have wafted to our shores.

Learning from that episode, Presidential Communications Operations Office Secretary Herminio Coloma directed the Philippine Information Agency (PIA) and the National Telecommunications Commission (NTC) to coordinate with the private telecoms service providers. The objective is to set up an Emergency Text Broadcast System that will transmit free (and reliable) notices to the public. This will prevent panic during emergencies arising from misinformation.

This is a good idea. The private telecoms service providers saw this as a good idea too.

All three telecoms providers — PLDT-Smart, Globe Telecom and Digitel-Sun — have agreed to a scheme where validated public advisories will be sent through a common platform. These advisories will come to our mobile phones via the number 1456. Any other advisory coming from any other source must be deemed doubtful.

For its part, the various government agencies, from Phivolcs to Pagasa to the DOH, have set up a system for validating information and recommending the advisories. During emergencies, the NDRRMC has also set up 24-hour hotlines for the public to access. These hotlines are: 9111406, 9122665 and 9125668.

Given present technologies, the NDRRMC might do better by acquiring a three-digit hotline number. I am sure the telecoms providers will cooperate on this one too.

In his memorandum order, Coloma designated the PIA as the clearing house for all public safety broadcast messages during emergencies. This gives a meaningful role for an agency inherited from the Marcos period that has long been largely idle. I hope this sluggish old bureaucratic relic will be primed for this critical job.

From the PIA, the public advisories will be coursed through the NTC and then to the telecoms companies for dissemination. This system will drastically bring down the potential level of panic caused by hoax massages sent through a modern communications system.