Betting on the Senate

Former Senate President Manny Villar once described Senators as “Puro magagaling yan. Di mo pwedeng pagsabihan ang mga yan!” [They’re so good, you can’t tell them anything!] So when the eager House representatives looked to their Senate counterparts and challenged them to impeach Ombudsman Merceditas Gutierrez, the Senators typically bristled and retorted: You can’t be prosecutors and judges at the same time. Prove your case and don’t tell us what to do.

This early, serious political analysts and not-so-serious-political bettors are counting the Senate version of yeas and nays, predicting the abstainers and absentees, like it were the PBA championship game. Will the sentiment of the voters be a consideration? In the latest Pulse reading, only 8% believed Gutierrez should not be impeached, while 50% believed she should and 42% were undecided. Majority of the undecided were unaware of the issues connected with the Ombudsman’s alleged betrayal of public trust. Some didn’t know what an Ombudsman is supposed to do. A few didn’t even know the Ombudsman.

The 15th Congress acquitted itself well in the public eye, when 212 yeas routed the 46 nays, 4 abstain, 15 absent and 6 recorded-present-but-did-not-vote. The overwhelming number for impeachment stunned their adversaries. After all, only 94 votes (1/3) were needed. But a surprising 212 out of 284 Representatives voted to continue the impeachment process. The shoe is really on the other foot as the Opposition accused the Majority of being the rubber stamp of P-Noy. Touché! The 14th Congress was also dubbed GMA’s rubber stamp. So what else is new in the fair-weathered world of politics?

The curious highlights of the voting results also bodes how the Senate decision might go. The notables among the 46 who voted against the impeachment were led by the four Arroyos: Gloria, sons Mikey and Dato and FG’s brother, Iggy; some of her former Cabinet members i.e. Arturo Yap, Boboy Syjuco, and loyal allies Lagman, Remulla, Nograles, Pichay, Datumanong, Cebu’s 2 Garcias, 2 Dimaporos, and 2 Magsaysays. Most are remnants of Lakas-Kampi with a smidgen of NPs.

Of the four abstentions, two names jump out. Mark Villar, son of Manny Villar and Lani Mercado, wife of Bong Revilla. Imelda Marcos was present but did not vote. Among the prominent absentees were Manny Pacquiao who got into a Tweeter controversy about the proceedings while training in Baguio and Martin Romualdez, remembered for generously footing a $15,000+ dinner tab during the last President’s many foreign excursions. The last name that rings a bell is Ruben Ecleo Jr., accused of parricide and convicted by Sandiganbayan for anomalous construction deals while he was the Mayor of Dinagat Island. He’s still part of the House roll call?

What is the lay of the land in the Upper Chamber? After receiving the articles of impeachment, the Senate has adopted the rules of procedure used at the trial of Former President Estrada. Sen. Santiago introduced two amendments that were consequently approved. These call for neutrality during the course of the trial and silence of visitors on pain of eviction. It is easy to understand the amendment on silence. It will be remembered that the Senator had two ladies escorted out of the venue during the Erap trials. But the call for neutrality is ironic coming from a vocal and staunch defender of the Ombudsman.

Sen. Drilon proposed that all the articles of impeachment be completed before voting to uphold or not. It was further approved that the Senate President votes only after all have stated their votes as suggested by Sen. Sotto. The body, however, disagreed with Santiago’s initial proposal to prevent media coverage of the trial.

The Articles cited six grounds for impeachment. The failure to file appropriate charges promptly against government officials involved in: 1) the anomalous $16M fertilizer scam; 2) The PNP Euro-Generals led by Comptroller P/Dir Eliseo dela Paz, caught in Russia with over $100,000, [despite his admission of criminal offense and findings of liability by investigating bodies]; 3) The anomalous billion-peso Mega-Pacific contract where Comelec Chairman Abalos et al were absolved; 4) NBN-ZTE broadband contract which excluded GMA from investigation and absolved FG from criminal prosecution; 5) Failure to act in Navy Ensign Philip Pestano’s death ; and 6) Low conviction record manifesting a level of incompetence and inefficiency tantamount to dereliction of duty.

Based on the gravity of the charges, it’s unimaginable that Gutierrez could escape. If convicted, she is removed and perpetually disqualified from public office. Pundits expect that pro and anti-Merci blocs are drawn along partisan lines. As counted by coffee-aficionados, LP and friends hover at eight votes, while Lakas-Kampi has four. Eleven could go either way, twelve when Sen. Lacson comes out.

But the intelligentsia seems to have the inside track. They predict that the magic-sixteen-needed-to-convict is within reach. They say the numbers only look like four are pro-Merci, but two are “open”, while they count a sure twelve that’s anti-Merci, with more in the wings. They foretell of two possible abstain or absent, just like their kin in Congress. That’s why GMA was caught skulking in the shadows for a tête-à-tête with besieged Gutierrez. Is that what the Ombudsman meant when she lamented that “dark politics” prevailed on the day she was impeached? Is GMA next?

A thought-provoking comment was raised: Doesn’t such a serious case as betrayal of public trust merit more than a game of numbers and leverage? Shouldn’t the fight against corruption or incompetence be the best reason for excising a guilty public servant? It’s rhetorical, but sadly, a universal condition afflicting many nations. An indifferent and uninformed citizenry led by dyed-in-the-wool politicos, motivated by vested interests, detracts from good governance everywhere.

Still it’s a brighter day when seven out of ten Filipinos approve and trust the President. It’s a far cry from his predecessor, who had negative approval and trust ratings from the first-to-the-last day of her questionable term.

My optimistic bet is that the Senate will do right by us.

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