Blood and oil

This was the dramatic title of the Economist issue of February 24, 2011. Interestingly it was also the title of a respected book written by Michael Klare in 2004. The blood and oil in the Economist is about people power revolts against despotic governments. Michael Klare’s book on “Blood and Oil” was criticism, a warning about policies tied up with cheap oil. It was a dangerous path, he warned that would inevitably lead to the kind of troubles surfacing in the region.

We must see beyond the events in the changing political landscape of the region. For one, the events should not come as a surprise nor should criticisms be limited to “Oriental” despots alone even if all the news is about it. Western media as the chronicler of contemporary events can be expected to highlight the blame on corruption and overstaying regimes. 

Saif al-Gadhafi was seen on television criticizing media for exaggerating the number of deaths and the use of mercenaries — that is not to say that he is right or that media was wrong.

For television watchers like me without access to hard information, I am more cautious about on the spot reports that could shield an unknown agenda.

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That is why Michael Klare’s book on “Blood and Oil” written seven years ago should be a reading companion to what is happening in the Middle East today. At the time the “blood” that worried Klare was “blood” from American soldiers sent to the Middle East to ensure the steady flow of cheap oil, not the blood of protesters confronting despotic rule. Western governments were not worried that these places with cheap oil are countries with people, too. They were dealing with autocrats and knew it. There was a lot of money to be made by oil companies. The same money they now say should have helped bring a better life for their people is their problem.

Now their peoples have awakened to their rights and protesting in the streets for better government. Couldn’t a better policy approach been possible to these countries other than to have cheap oil flowing?

The opportunities in the past for better policies toward the region were missed. These days the only valid view are recriminations as if the blood and oil situation happened in its own accord. To quote from the Economist article “Today Libya’s tyrant is paying mercenaries to shoot his people in the streets like “rats” and “cockroaches”…. The hope is that by the time you read this Mr Qadhafi has fallen, and Tripoli is sharing the joy of Benghazi to the east, where Libya’s uprising began. Yet his people are paying a terrible price for freedom. “ Nice prose but should we not look into the reasons how and why that unhappy situation came about? The answer does not lie either on the West led by America to step in whenever the stability of countries with oil is threatened.

As Klare pointed in his book before the Middle East crisis “we don’t have enough guns or blood to stabilize a world that we antagonize every time we deploy into an “occupation” mode.” Cheap oil will no longer be cheap if it is bought at the expense of American blood on the floor.

“American policy makers are deceiving the public when they suggest they can stabilize the Middle East and protect cheap oil. Not only can the pipelines not be protected, but on America’s current consumption path, the Gulf States would have to DOUBLE production to keep up with American demand. “ adds Klare.

A review cites the book for its emphasis on getting to a post-petroleum economy. There are ways that are already available to lessen dependence on cheap oil — solar power, more wind power, keep a gradual elimination of chlorine-based and petroleum-based industries, a turn toward self-sustainment across the board.

After marshalling his facts on what he considers a policy failure on oil, he recommends three courses of action: divorce energy purchases from security commitments — stop tolerating dictators and arming terrorist nations for the sake of cheap oil; reduce our reliance on imported oil, dramatically prepare the way for a transition to a post-petroleum economy that includes conservation, hybrid vehicles, public transportation, the two-way energy grid etc.

In other words, in Klare’s view the problem of oil and blood will not be solved by military or political means. It may need a change in our way of life. Americans like Klare know more about oil and ill-conceived policies that brought grief to so many. He said “if we do not heal ourselves from inside out, that no amount of guns, blood, or destruction will save us from the inevitable implosion of the unstable places where oil is to be found.”

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The Philippines will not be exempted from the “blood and oil” paradigm if there should be a scramble for oil around the South China Sea that the Chinese claim is their territory.

Indeed, it may already have begun even if there is not a drop of oil in question. Only last Thursday, the Philippines protested the harassment of a department of energy research vessel by two Chinese gunboats. We may be entering into a dangerous phase in the Spratly islands dispute.

It will need exceptional political leadership to steer the Philippines through the shoals of conflict with an honorable and realistic response. China is the economic and political giant in our midst. How are we to cope when it decides to challenge our sovereignty? It does not look very bright for the Philippines with the Aquino government’s feeble response of bringing it up with the Chinese embassy and sending a Spratly expert to Beijing.

The Chinese embassy spokesman’s response is ominous but nothing new. “What I want to point our is that, ever since ancient times, China has indisputable sovereignty over Nansha Islands and their adjacent waters,” he wrote. 

A more comprehensive game plan must already be on the table to avoid confrontations that we are not prepared to tackle. China’s policy is to stick to the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea. However, there is latitude for policy and diplomatic maneuvering for the Philippines with competent and astute leadership. Do we have it?