Moving on

Tourism Secretary Alberto Lim thinks the problem has been overblown, while the ambassador of Indonesia predicts that the storm will blow over in three months.

Both Philippine and Chinese government representatives have expressed eagerness to move on.

The Aug. 23 hostage crisis has done no serious damage to relations between Manila and Beijing, if we go by this year’s Chinese National Day celebration, which in this country was held at the Shangri-La Makati on Tuesday night.

Beijing is expected to receive soon, at the same time as Filipinos, the results of Malacañang’s review of the recommendations (officially still confidential) of the incident investigation and review committee (IIRC) that conducted a marathon probe of the hostage debacle.

Unlike certain Hong Kong Chinese, the mainland Chinese have a keen sense of the importance of non-interference in other countries’ affairs. You will not hear a Philippine president complaining about receiving from Beijing “insulting” detailed instructions on how Manila should conduct its own business.

Five of the hostages were in fact Canadian passport holders – the woman who lost her husband and two children, and whose third child suffered head injuries and went into a coma.

The hostages also included a British couple who shuttle between their homes in London and Hong Kong.

No angry protesters swarmed into any Philippine diplomatic mission in Canada or Britain, lambasting the mishandling of the hostage crisis or criticizing the propensity of Pinoys to smile in the face of tragedy, especially in front of a camera. And P-Noy got no “insulting” letter from either the British or Canadian governments. Unlike China, the two countries had to ask Manila for their copies of the IRRC report with the recommendations, which they got days after the Chinese did.

Beijing doesn’t interfere in the affairs of other governments. But because China handles foreign affairs for Hong Kong and the majority of the hostages were Hong Kong tourists, it’s safe to guess that the Chinese won’t be too happy if the Palace review limits liability for the fiasco to the small fry.

Will P-Noy care? What has he got to lose? If at all, the goodwill of the world’s second largest economy, which also wields a lot of geopolitical clout.

As important as Beijing’s (and Hong Kong’s) reaction to the review, however, are the reactions of Filipinos and the rest of the world. Any major divergence from the IIRC recommendations must be carefully explained by President Aquino, to ensure that the review process and his conclusions are credible.

Equally important will be the steps taken in the coming months to strengthen the institutions whose weaknesses were highlighted by the tragedy, and to prevent a repeat of the botched response.

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At the National Day celebrations, Chinese Ambassador Liu Jianchao was profuse in his praise of the IRRC’s work. In the presence of Justice Secretary and IRRC chair Leila de Lima and member Teresita Ang See, Liu told me that the probe was “responsible, professional, comprehensive and thorough.”

When De Lima took her leave, Liu escorted her to the door.

The principal guests at the National Day were Vice President Jejomar Binay and Foreign Secretary Alberto Romulo. The two officials’ trip to Beijing to present Malacañang’s review of the IRRC’s work has to wait for the end of a weeklong nationwide vacation in China in connection with its 61st National Day.

Also present at the Shangri-La event was Manila Mayor Alfredo Lim, longtime P-Noy supporter who was recommended by the IIRC to face criminal and administrative sanctions. Five of the “eight critical events” deemed by the IIRC to have led to the bloody ending of the hostage crisis could be traced to Lim, chairman of Manila’s crisis management committee.

Tourism chief Bertie Lim was also present, and told me that he was on “crisis marketing” mode.

Bertie had originally planned to focus on improving tourism infrastructure first before marketing the country overseas. But the hostage crisis has necessitated damage control.

Tourist arrivals from Hong Kong, of course, aren’t expected to recover in the near future. But arrivals from the mainland have not been as affected, he said, and official figures could show that the impact of the crisis on tourism has been “overblown.”

He received some words of encouragement from Indonesian Ambassador Y. Kristiarto Legowo, who recalled the fallout from several deadly terrorist attacks in Bali and the capital Jakarta.

After the first bomb attacks in Bali in 2002, the resort island suffered a 75 percent drop in tourism, its main industry, Legowo said. It took a year before recovery started, only to be set back again by a second wave of bombings targeting tourist spots in 2005.

But Indonesia has recovered and is now seen as one of the most promising emerging economies in the world. Legowo emphasized that the hostage mess was nowhere as grievous as the Bali bombings, which claimed 202 lives in the first attack.

For Manila’s tourism industry to recover from the hostage fiasco, Legowo told me, “give it three months.”

Recovery will be helped along and moving on made easier if the world sees that the Philippines, now “open for business under new management” as President Aquino described it in New York, is putting long-term reforms in place.