Election TIPS (2)

Last week, I enumerated four internal attributes that we should look for in our national and local leaders. Adding on to a list originally prepared by retired Chief Justice Art Panganiban, we coined the term - TIPS, with “T” for Trustworthiness, “I” for Integrity, “P” for Probity and “S” for (moral) Strength. This week, using the same acronym TIPS, let me provide my four centavos on the external manifestations of leadership that our country is yearning for.

“T” stands for Transcendental — definitely not transactional and a notch above transformational. Dr. Pablo Cardona distinguishes the three concepts as follows: a transactional approach focuses on the attainment of tasks and is assessed by mistakes; a transformational mindset is governed by objectives and assessed by results; while a transcendental system is mission-oriented and the leadership is assessed by the contributions made towards attaining such mission. This leads me to the “I” which stands for Inspirational. Leadership by example is a given but our leaders will need to go beyond that — they will need to prod and coax our citizenry towards our promised land. The difference between ordinary and inspirational leadership is best captured by the story of the two great orators — Demosthenes and Cicero. When Cicero spoke to crowds in ancient Rome, people would turn to each other after hearing the speech and say ‘great speech’. But when Demosthenes spoke to the crowds in ancient Greece, people would turn to each other saying, ‘let’s march’.

“P” means Proactive. Our leaders cannot afford to react to events as they unfold — they must help shape events even before they occur. Our country faces basic challenges dealing with poverty, education and health care. Rather than coming out with palliative, “dole out” solutions that make their constituents continually dependent on them, they should initiate programs that would attack the root causes of these problems. Finally “S” stands for Sacrificing. Public service is not a business that should result in private gain. It should not be treated as property that can be passed on from generation to generation. Indeed, public service is primarily about sacrificing for the common good. So let me summarize the external manifestations of leadership we should all be looking for —Transcendental, Inspirational, Proactive and Sacrificing —TIPS (2)!

*      *      *      *

Surveys 101: Are the May 2010 elections all over but the counting? Many political veterans including Amando Doronilla seem to think so insofar as the presidential, vice presidential and top nine senatorial slots are concerned. But how can a sample of 1,000-2,000 respondents determine the behavioral pattern of 50 million voters? The answer was taught in the basic statistics course we all took in college but which we may have already forgotten or never really understood. But let me paraphrase the response of the European Society for Opinion and Marketing Research (ESOMAR) guide to Opinion Polls which likens a polling exercise to our ability to determine the taste of baked spaghetti contained in a pyrex by just eating a spoonful.

The key factor is that the spaghetti must be properly mixed so that the spoonful is properly representative of the entire pyrex. Moreover, it should be tasted within a reasonable time after it is baked. An unscientific survey can be likened to unmixed spaghetti. If you eat only from the top (where there is a lot of cheese) or from the bottom (where there is little tomato sauce), then you may get a misleading view of the taste of the entire batch. Just as the trick in checking the taste of spaghetti is to mix well, rather than to eat a lot, so the essence of a scientific poll is not the quantity of the respondents but the quality of the representative sample.

Speaking on the accuracy of surveys, I checked on the performance of Pulse Asia with respect to the 2004 and 2007 elections. Comparing the figures posted in their last survey before the 2004 elections to that of the list of actual winners, I noticed they had correctly predicted the winners in the Presidential (GMA) and Vice Presidential (De Castro) contests as well as in 11 out of the 12 Senatorial slots. The only “surprise” was Compañera Pia Cayetano who was ranked in the 10th to 17th (#15 in the last poll) bracket but ended up placing a strong 6th. Similarly, in the 2007 elections, Pulse accurately called the first 11 winners. The phenomenon was Senator Antonio Trillanes who was surveyed at 16th to 21 places (#20 in the last poll) but was able to land inside the magic 12 in 11th place.

*      *      *      *

Long Lines: Let me reiterate the need for our voters to mentally and physically prepare for long lines on voting day. This is not only a result of the certain initial confusion to be brought about by our first automated elections but also because our regular 200 voter precincts have been merged to form larger 1,000-person precincts. And remember that only 10 voters can be accommodated at any one time. To help all of us to be patient, perhaps we can imagine ourselves to be lining up for the fire sale at Rustan’s inside the Shangri-la Plaza mall which by the way is still ongoing.

*      *      *      *

Happy Mother’s Day not just to the biological moms but to all women who nurture and care like our mothers. Not sure if this is an original but I reckon that the reason God created mothers is that there are not enough angels in heaven.

*      *      *      *

“A mother is she who can take the place of all others

 but whose place no one else can take.” — Cardinal Mermillod

*      *      *      *

E-mail: [email protected]