One million Cebu votes for Gibo?

It's just eleven days before the elections and survey outfits are cranking out their latest findings. As before, the LP presidential bet is leading with a comfortable margin over his NP rival. Meanwhile, the two other hopefuls from the Pwersa ng Masa and Lakas-Kampi are gaining grounds and speculations are ripe that either of them may yet land at the top.

Especially Gibo Teodoro, they say. He has been a consistent choice among the young in mock ballotings in colleges and universities. Among professionals, he is the fair-haired candidate too. What gives? In the early days of the race, Gibo was hardly worth notice, being always one of the tail enders, but lately, things have picked up for him.

 Take his Cebu following. With the Governor standing pat on her advocacy of Gibo, despite the contrary stand of some members of her clan, local officials have vowed allegiance to the Lakas-Kampi standard bearer. One million votes is the commitment of the Cebu leadership for him, the same number which made GMA win over his rivals in the 2004 Cebu polls. Will Gibo get this number?

 If one looks at the big crowd that attended his recent rallies here it seems one million votes is a certainty. But crowd size is not always a gauge of what a candidate gets at the polls. Veteran poll watchers know some people attend political gatherings for reasons other than conviction. Some are there for curiosity or for entertainment. Others are there because they were herded or "gihakot" for the event. In fact, in some cases, rally presence involves cash doleouts from organizers who are usually local party men.

 Yet, Cebu may yet deliver its one million votes as promised. With it Gibo may yet win the race, assuming other provinces would be upbeat for the "galing at talino" presidentiable, and assuming too that GMA would backstop him (if she has not yet done so) with logistics at the last hour.

 Logistics, an euphemism for funds, is actually a crucial factor in Philippine elections. With it one could get the mandate; without it one may as well plant camote. For the fate of people aspiring for national positions really rests with local officials-governors, mayors, barangay heads. Being in the forefront, they command the following of most of their constituents, especially the masa, and their choice of candidates is usually the latter's choice too. And these officials are thirsting for money, millions of it, to put one over their rivals or to keep them afloat as they run their offices once elected.

 Most of these local officials are of course presently linked with Malacañang. But such link is only as strong as the latter's logistic support. Without this, how can they run their campaign? And how can they or their pet candidates get reelected? Hence, if GMA does not help them, how can they help Gibo? There is of course an alternative in Manny Villar. But who can compete with the High Office in terms of funding?

 There's a suspicion that those governors and mayors who have stuck it out with Gibo have already gotten the funds they need. There's also a suspicion that such dough is sourced from the Pasig Office, but that this is kept under wraps because the perception is that any overt alliance with GMA is an alliance for defeat. Whether true or not, one can't tell.

But one need not be told of GMA's acute foresight when it comes to political survival. She may be the most unpopular president this country ever had, but she is also the most capable of managing events and circumstances in her favor. Remember the series of impeachment attempts against her? Remember the inquiries on the fertilizer scam and the ZTE deal which along with the "Hello Garci" fiasco almost brought out another people power? Remember the Oxford hotel coup attempt? All these rattled her leadership, but she has remained in command.

That there is presently a palpable threat to her person and prestige cannot be denied. Specially, that there is a possibility of being taken to court once she exits is also undeniable. These considered, can she afford to stand idly by and leave her fate to chance? No sir, she would do everything in her power to see to it that whoever succeeds her would be somebody she could negotiate with.

That somebody could be the candidate of the party she created. Or is there somebody else?

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