Grim scenario after elections

This article was e-mailed to this column by Liberal Party senatorial candidate Ruffy Biazon. As I live in Muntinlupa, I am his constituent and have always had good words to say of him. He thinks Noynoy Aquino could be a hostage by a hostile legislature if he becomes president and he tells us why:

“The campaign for national candidates is almost halfway through as we near the start of the campaign for local positions. At this time, there is an indication of how the results will turn out, although the remaining half of the campaign period may still see changes in the ratings of candidates. Therefore, it is important that during this time, an assessment of the candidates’ ratings and political parties’campaign strategies and direction is in order.

Focusing on my own party, the Liberal Party, both our presidential and vice presidential candidates have consistently topped the surveys ever since they first announced their intentions to run for the posts they’re now candidates for.

With the prospect of an Aquino-Roxas victory more real than imagined, it becomes necessary now to do a post-election scenario analysis of what awaits an Aquino-Roxas administration. Of course, the significant scenario is one that will pertain to the Legislative branch of government, because the plans and programs of the president can only push through if there is support from the Congress.

Let me emphasize that this is a worst-case scenario analysis. Of course, it may turn out differently, but one never really makes plans using the best case scenario. In order to be effective and relevant, you always consider the prospect of the worst situation you can face.

 With this in mind, I would venture to say that the House of Representatives seems to most likely become an Arroyo stronghold. With Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo herself running for a seat in the House, cabinet members seeking both congressional and party list seats, many more incumbent pro-administration congressmen seeking reelection, it stands to reason that the future Rep. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo has a very good chance of getting the Speakership of the House of Representatives at the maximum, or come up with a major bloc in the lower chamber, big enough to be a significant threat to launch an impeachment which requires only a third of the House membership.

That significant bloc will also have a very strong influence in how legislation will pass or not pass in the lower chamber. It will be an excruciating and tedious effort to get bills through the legislative mill in the House.

An Aquino-Roxas electoral victory will only mean that Senators Villar and Legarda will go back as members of the Philippine Senate. It is therefore necessary to play out the scenario in the upper chamber, since under the bicameral system of government, legislation is passed by both chambers before it become law.

Based on this projected alignments, it would appear that Sen. Villar will have a bigger bloc ready to support a bid for the Senate presidency. With a bloc composed of 10 senators who are members of his party, vocal supporters or known sympathizers, Sen. Villar will only need three more to gain the majority in the Senate and propel him to the Senate presidency.

In conclusion, there is a possibility that the relationship between the 15th Congress and an Aquino presidency might be a hostile relationship at worst or a difficult one at best. Noynoy Aquino could be held hostage by an Arroyo House Speakership and a Villar Senate Presidency.

Experience has taught us that the dynamics in the legislature sometimes transcend those of national and even party interests. That when the individual perks and coveted positions are at stake, the decision on who to side with are made with the individual interests in primary consideration.

It is therefore imperative that the supporters of Noynoy Aquino, who have the desire to see him succeed as president, should give equal and committed support to his senatorial candidates in order to ensure that he has enough allies in the legislature to support his plans and programs. The senatorial elections must not only be an afterthought, but it should be considered a crucial part of the strategic plan in gaining leadership of this country and installing a government that will be able to work without the difficulties of an uncooperative legislature.”

This may be a sympathetic reminder from Biazon but it also confirms the need for constitutional reform that the present Senate did not even bother to look at.

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A recent Pulse Asia survey that pointed to television as the most influential source of information in choosing a president is nothing new nor original. It has always been so in local politics. Big business consider media clout as an essential tool in protecting their interests often to the detriment of the public at large.

The survey, conducted from Feb. 21 to 25, found that 64 percent of registered voters believe mass media is the most influential source of information in choosing a president. Television got the biggest share with 56 percent, followed by local radio stations with four percent and national radio stations with two percent. The biggest television station is owned by known enemies of the Arroyo government so their bias is obvious.The survey also showed that the family or relatives and friends have greater influence on voters, with 19 percent and six percent. It claims that surveys were found to be less influential with only one percent but it did not say that surveys are used as the basis for news bias.

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If the clout of media is true in the Philippines, it is the same even in a more politically sophisticated society like the United States.

Dr. Tim Groseclose, a professor of political science and economics at UCLA, has spent years constructing precise, quantitative measures of the slant of media outlets. Among his conclusions: All mainstream media outlets have a liberal bias; even the Drudge Report leans slightly left. Although Fox News’ Special Report leans slightly right, its conservative bias is less than the liberal bias of any of the three network evening news shows. He points to several outlets—including the New York Times, Los Angeles Times, and CBS Evening News as extremely biased; that is, they sound more like a speech by the average Democrat in Congress than a truly unbiased news outlet.

 But does the bias matter?

Yes. A lot.

As Groseclose shows, the general leftward bias of the media has shifted the “Political Quotient” of the average American by about 25 points. That shift is approximately the difference between the (current) political views of the average American, and the political views of the average resident of Orange County, California or Salt Lake County, Utah.