Noynoy biggest loser in CICC mock poll

The mock election done during last Friday's forum for six presidential candidates at the Cebu International Convention Center produced results that could have far ranging repercussions on the campaign from hereon.

The results, out of 960 votes cast, are: Gilbert Teodoro, 456; Noynoy Aquino, 296; Manny Villar, 88; Richard Gordon, 45; Eddie Villanueva, 29; and Joseph Estrada, 19. Interestingly, Nick Perlas, who was not in the forum, got two votes in the poll.

 The biggest inference to emerge from the poll is that Noynoy Aquino can be beaten. For once it has been shown that the man who has been leading all other polls since his mother Corazon Aquino died does have clay feet after all.

 Most other recent polls have shown that the lead of Noynoy has been slipping dramatically and that Villar, who used to lord over the polls until Noynoy came into the picture, is catching up and starting to breathe down his neck.

 But it was the poll taken by students of the Ateneo Graduate School of Business at the CICC that finally proved, for the first time, that the pattern that has slowly been emerging can, in fact, happen. Noynoy can be beaten.

 And curiously as it may seem, it is not so much the spectacular showing of Gibo, also for the first time, that suggests the possibility of his leapfrogging from the cellar to the top that made the poll interesting.

 What the poll results scream is the validity of the notion that, over time, people will eventually be able to rein in their emotions and finally rethink their options, such as whether it is in fact in the best interests of the country to elect somebody like Noynoy.

 The poll results more significantly underscore the fact that Noynoy can be beaten, rather than the possibility that Gibo can actually land on top in such dramatic fashion after hogging the cellar for so long.

 The poll results have reenergized my hope that the Filipino people, especially the Cebuanos, will in the end see the folly and impractically of electing someone just because he is a son of great parents.

 Cebuanos have been criticized for backing Gloria Arroyo. But such criticisms emerged only after Arroyo became hugely unpopular. Nobody took issue with the fact that at the time Cebuanos were given a choice -- between Arroyo and Fernando Poe -- they made the right one.

 In the mock polls held last Friday, a representative segment of Cebuanos again gave a clear and resounding statement to the nation that they were not going to hand over the future to someone who will only compromise it.

 Gibo should be very happy with the results because now he has found a real toe-hold after months of flailing about for some solid support. As far as the overall picture is concerned, his win means nothing. But it handed him a possibility for the first time. That is enough for now.

 The happiest of all, however, should be Villar, even if he landed a far third. The mock poll results validated what the emerging trend in the other surveys have shown, that Noynoy can be overtaken.

 Villar has not been dislodged from his trailing position behind Noynoy. And if the mock poll gave him far fewer votes than the trend in the other surveys did, at least those votes must have gone to Gibo and not to Noynoy.

 Besides, Noynoy lost a more significant number of votes to Gibo than Villar did. If this becomes a trend, and given the three candidates' relative positions in the overall standings, we should expect a new pair of race leaders down the stretch. And not one of them would be Noynoy.