Political road map

With the much expected formal declaration of former president Joseph Estrada and running mate Jejomar Binay now over and done with, the political season is certainly off to a controversial start. It will be interesting for political observers to watch how Erap will act out “the last performance of his life,” as he tries on the role of “the comeback kid.”

Estrada supporters are confident of a win, recalling that in 1998, the former president obtained close to 11 million or about 40 percent of the votes in a field of 11 candidates. Majority of the votes came from the masa who, according to former senator Ernie Maceda, continue to be loyal supporters of Erap, proving this point by holding the former president’s formal declaration in Moriones, Tondo.

The big question however is whether Erap will be allowed to run or not. His declaration has already opened up a slew of fresh legal debates, with constitutional experts and legal luminaries clearly divided over the issue. Obviously, the road to Malacañang will be a rocky one for Estrada considering that a lot of obstacles will most likely be thrown his way to get him disqualified, most likely from the civil society groups who took part in EDSA II.

The way many see it, if there is a legal loophole that will allow the former president to run, then by all means allow him to do so to settle once and for all whether the people still want him and believe in him. This should finally put a closure to the issues surrounding his ouster during EDSA II.

With at least five major candidates for president in 2010, the possibility of having a minority president looms once again. But a lot of observers aver the scenario looks much better than the 1992 elections where seven major personalities vied for the presidency.

Noynoy and Mar seem to be gaining a lot of traction, with Noynoy enjoying a comfortable lead over other presidentiables as shown by a recent SWS survey. But it’s still a long way before the elections, and to maintain that lead, Noynoy and Mar must come out with a convincing program on how they intend to address the enormous problems of this country.

Noynoy has parlayed the legacy of his parents to catapult him to his current level of popularity, but eventually the focus must shift to him as an individual, and whether he has the vision to transform this country. He can do something similar to what Obama did who two years before the elections by embarking on a campaign selling only one idea: Change. In this country, we need change — plenty of it.

The advantage for Noynoy and Mar — and the same goes for Chiz and Loren — is that the time for their generation has come, with the youth (18 to 35 age bracket) comprising a large majority of the voting population at more than 34 million. This is the generation that could largely determine the outcome of the 2010 polls. It would be interesting to observe how this will play out since Chiz and Loren are also popular with the youth.

While those two have not officially declared their tandem, this has been confirmed by Congressman Mark Cojuangco, son of Nationalist People’s Coalition chairman emeritus Eduardo “Danding” Cojuangco. On many occasions however, Danding has privately said he would rather remain in the background and leave NPC affairs to the younger members of the party and his children. He has long reconciled with the other Cojuangco branch, and prefers to concentrate on his business and ultimately retire and just enjoy his grandchildren. 

While Danding has made no special preference between his two nephews, Noynoy and Gilbert Teodoro, it’s a well known fact that Gilbert has had differences with his uncle. Despite his poor showing in surveys, Gilbert continues to have a positive outlook, counting on the grassroots political machinery of Lakas-Kampi to propel him to victory. According to Malacañang, a lot of politicians — even from the Liberal Party of Noynoy — are starting to knock on the doors of Lakas-Kampi which is perceived to have the resources necessary to win.

Manny Villar however is the poor boy from Tondo turned billionaire with P7 billion at his disposal. He may currently be trailing behind Noynoy, but his camp says they are prepared to do whatever it would take to win. As his wife Cynthia said, they have not yet started. No one underestimates the political savvy of the Villar camp, especially since local leaders mostly from Lakas-Kampi have been jumping to the Nacionalista Party (NP). Prior to the defection en masse of Camarines Sur officials led by Governor LRay Villafuerte, administration allies have already bolted Lakas to join the NP, like Davao del Sur governor Douglas Cagas, an influential Southern Mindanao politician.

All roads lead to Malacañang, but there will only be one who will make it to the finish line. While the winner will most likely be a minority president, people are hoping that whoever he is, he will follow a political road map that would help this country achieve political maturity and unify a nation that has been so fragmented by political vendetta and revenge. The time has come for this generation to start moving this country towards finding solutions to the growing number of Filipinos who continue to suffer as shown by the recent disasters.

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