Preemption is not only military

Preemption acquired its notoriety as a military term when President Bush used the term to justify the bombing of Iraq. But preemption is also used in a wider sense and it can be an effective instrument for regime change. It comes in different forms but it has also been used as tactic to ensure election victory for favored candidates. As a military term, a preemptive strike is a surprise attack to prevent the enemy from making war.

As a tactic preemption can be used to influence elections and often it is difficult to identify as such because it hides its purpose through legitimate channels. It is this sense that we should watch for preemption and its use in the coming 2010 elections.

I would put the case of the SWS Noynoy survey giving him a 60 percent lead in this category. We must watch very keenly how it will be employed. I do not think this is the first time we will hear of it.

The reasoning behind placing Noynoy on top of the list of presidential aspirants is not just to prove he is popular because of the sympathy for former President Cory Aquino’s recent death. There may be a more devious design to it. I think we will see this tactic more than once because the idea is to preempt in the minds of voters that if he had a 60 percent advantage, he cannot lose. Indeed, among the many postings made to my column, “Noynoy: Come hell or high water” last week, the most ominous was one which said, you can say anything you want about Noynoy being clueless, the fact is he will be the next President of the Philippines. Am I not afraid that I should not be in his graces?

Oh?

If despite of this huge advantage announced again and again in biased media, he loses, really lose in the election then it will be claimed by his supporters that this is only possible because he was cheated. I would go along with Senator Richard Gordon on this point. We should prohibit the publication of such surveys if we are really serious in developing a more intelligent electorate and elections as the test of real democracy. The other candidates will serve public interest if they come together to stop the preemption now and not wait for the time when it may be too late. After all, if he is truly popular and deserves to win he does not need surveys to prove that.

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I caught the last bit of former President Erap’s televised rally in Tondo where he announced he was definitely running again for president of the Philippines. I would give him an A for gall. But there you are, he does not seem to have friends who would tell him to his face that he is a wash-out. I notice that he was slurring through words and thought — well — the man has not changed, saying the same words with a little bit of spirit (the liquid kind) while his lieutenants stood in attention to his back. Oh, let me correct that. He did have a friend, Aprodicio A. Laquian, who wrote “The Erap Tragedy: Tales from the Snake Pit”. I don’t know if it is still in print but it may be time to re-read it. I think that would be just as useful as filing a case against him in the Supreme Court to think that he can just defy the law that stipulate he cannot run for another term.

But let us go back to Laquian who wrote the book with his wife, Eleonor.

“In this book, we wish to share our analysis of Erap’s ill starred presidency with those who are interested in understanding why and how he failed. We hope that some lessons can be learned from the fate of the Erap presidency and in the self-destruction of a man who seemed to have failed to conquer his private demons. We also focus on the President’s efforts to overcome his personal shortcomings as he attempted to carry out the functions of his office. Erap — for all his flaws and they are grievous — could have been a good president if only his good side had prevailed. But it didn’t.”

The book is written with sympathy. By the way, Erap even on this first term said that “this would be his last performance.” The trouble was that he did not distinguish between his movie persona and his role in reality as the president of the Philippines. Laquian is remembered for his story on how it was that he often found himself the only sober man around after the midnight inner cabinet sessions.

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Surfing through the Internet I found this story about Yemen and water strikingly similar to conditions in the Philippines. We may be misled at the sight of floods to think that we have plenty of water. But if it is not properly harnessed and water treatments are not in place for recycling we would suffer the same fate. Numerous articles have been written about the war on water.

The article said Yemen was set to be the first country in the world to run out of water and goes on to describe what was happening there today. It said in Yemen, “one type of vehicle is always within sight on Yemen’s roads: the water truck.

“The brightly colored, dilapidated tankers, often driven by Kalashnikov-wielding tribesmen, travel winding mountain roads and cross deserts to bring Yemenis a commodity more precious than petrol. It is one that increasingly only the rich can afford, with supply through the water mains regularly cut off. Others must rely on scarce rain, charity or crime to stave off thirst.”

I live in the southern part of Metro Manila and water trucks have also been ubiquitous, coming in and out of the many villages.

If that is the sign that Yemen is soon going to run out of water, maybe it is time we also look at conditions on our own water supply.

In Yemen, government and experts agree the capital, Sanaa, has about ten years at current rates before its wells run dry but the city of two million (compare that to MM’s 10 million) continues to grow and more and more people are forced to leave because of water shortages.

That is also true of Metro Manila where the availability of water is one of the first considerations in buying a property in a subdivision.