Divergence of political strategies

The recent developments in the political scene point to a 2010 presidential election being conducted in a bevy of contrasts. Campaign strategies, which were used in different times in the past with fair amounts of successes, will, this time, test one another in one electoral season. With apologies to the Partido ng Masang Pilipino of former President Joseph Ejercito Estrada, I assume the clash of, at least, three major groups. There will be the merged LAKAS-KAMPI of the administration, the Nacionalista Party and the Liberal Party.

I have not factored the PMP because while Estrada claims he is 99.99 percent sure of running, he himself continues to cancel the possibility of his candidacy by advancing his condition that he will seek the presidency "only if the opposition does not unite" under the banner of a common candidate.

Some statements made by top honchos of these groups allowed me a glimpse into the fundamentals of their respective anticipated strategies. Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita, a former military general, in declaring that the administration will name their candidate within this month of September spoke ominously of the machinery of the administration. Let us dwell on this first.

It can be deduced from the declaration of Sec. Ermita that in the next presidential election, it is not mostly the person that wins the election. It is how effective the party herds the votes that spells the difference between victory or loss. So, it does not matter to the administration who among the party-outsider in Vice President Noli de Castro, or the newly inducted LAKAS-KAMPI member, Defense Secretary, Gilbert Teodoro, or a card bearing member Bayani Fernando carries the party banner. The behavior of their field commanders will count.

The failure of the several attempts to impeach Her Excellency, President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo could only be traced to "political patronage", a term that has had a myriad of meanings, including unsavory ones. In the House of Representatives, one impeachment complaint after another did not even reach plenary session. Congressmen, in huge numbers, could not see the plethora of valid charges against the president nor could they hear the fury of the crowds of people asking for the chance to substantiate the accusations with admissible evidence. So, under the political concept of the proceedings, they easily slew the impeachment dragon with the rapiers of their votes.

Well, these are the same congressmen who dominate the politics in their districts. They are the field commanders. They happen to enjoy the support of most of the mayors in their turf either because in the 2007 elections, they got their logistical support from the congressmen or they had to bite the bait called pork barrel projects. Thee mayors in turn tell their councilors to toe the line. When 2010 comes, these representatives can literally cash on the president's political debt, and in the hustings, funnel the inexhaustible resources Malacañang to the mayors, the councilors and ultimately the voting populace. That is the line of political patronage.

   Early on, then Senate President Manuel B. Villar, in a more candid moment, expressed the opinion that a presidential timber has to have no less than a billion pesos to bankroll a campaign. 

   That outlines the unwritten strategy of the Nacionalista Party. It will engage in the political battle via an organization that, because it will not thirst for gas, will be a fusion of experienced political minds and expert marketing people. Its campaigners will be very well fed and its materials more than sufficient.   More importantly, it will have the kind of wherewithal that brilliant product packaging needs.

On the part of the Liberal Party, the words of former Senator Jovito Salonga seemed to have been repeated by the party's emerging bet in Sen. Benigno Aquino III, Sen. Noynoy, to many.

In every single opportunity, Salonga would like to recall his epic political battles. With moist eyes, he remembered that his victory over the erstwhile political demigods in his province was attributable more to ideals than resources, to the image of honesty than the façade of opulence and to service dedication than material benevolence. A TV interview with Sen. Noynoy, advocating change, reverberated similar concepts.

It will be interesting to find out how we will react to this divergence of strategies.