Squandered opportunities

Joseph Estrada has formidable charm, and many people will attest to his innate generosity and soft spot for the poor.

But we must not forget that the current administration is in place because Erap flubbed what he described as the greatest performance of his life.

EDSA II was a resounding success partly because people believed the alternative to Erap was so much more palatable.

The forces behind people power II eagerly anticipated the replacement of Erap with his no-nonsense, hardworking constitutional successor, then vice president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

And in the first months of her administration, “Ate Glo” (remember that image?), the Taray Queen, did not disappoint.

President Arroyo was the opposite of her successor: up early for Mass, then work until about 9 p.m. Contrast that work ethic with Erap’s, a lover of gambling, boozing and carousing until 4 a.m., as his inner circle’s designated driver indiscreetly blabbed. Erap’s working day started at 3 p.m.; earlier than that, you risked encountering a president with slurred speech and unfocused vision, trying to make up for his weak grasp of national affairs with his boundless charm.

In the post-EDSA II euphoria, GMA was a breath of fresh air — and Mike Arroyo even knew enough to stay in the shadows.

President Arroyo, the overachieving economics professor and Georgetown graduate, was the antithesis of Erap the college dropout who enjoyed mangling the English language. When GMA faced the international community, none of her compatriots feared that she might make a fool of herself.

After two and a half years at the nation’s helm, the Erap jokes that had won him the presidency by a landslide had worn thin.

Even the amusement over his four families and his mansions had been replaced by questions about funding for the upkeep of the families and assets, about insider trading and the gangsters in his inner circle.

The disappearance of casino worker Edgar Bentain cast a dark shadow over his victory. Erap stepped down with the executions of Salvador Dacer and driver Emmanuel Corbito fouling up his exit tracks.

President Arroyo later risked the wrath of Erap’s legions of supporters by refusing to stop his arrest, detention and prosecution.

Erap has gone down in history as the first Philippine president to be convicted of large-scale corruption — the result of painstaking work by some of the country’s best lawyers led by Simeon Marcelo.

That President Arroyo has turned out to be worse than her predecessor does not erase the many failings of Erap as president. He could have been a great president, given his enormous popularity. Instead his greatest performance bombed badly at the box office.

It is useful to keep these things in mind as Erap aims for a second shot at the presidency.

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Erap should share a Chateau Petrus ($1,500 per bottle) with President Arroyo, herself a lover of fine wines and hard liquor. He owes his rehabilitation in the eyes of the public to the immoderate greed that will always be associated with the Arroyo administration.

Compared with the scandals besetting the current administration, the excesses during the shortened presidency of Erap pale in comparison. He can be forgiven for wanting to put his successor behind bars for at least double the time he spent in detention without bail.

It is also understandable that an ex-convict, as Erap himself describes himself in jest, would want full vindication.

Erap was pardoned by the President without being required to admit his guilt and declare remorse as part of his path to rehabilitation. To this day the pardoned convict professes innocence of plunder.

But vindication does not necessarily have to mean regaining the presidency, and then turning over power to his vice president, as Erap likes to say in an effort to prove that all he wants is full vindication.

Since 1992, Filipinos have picked a president and vice president from rival parties. Will Erap be willing to hand over the reins to what could be the opposition party?

There is also the Constitution, which clearly bars Philippine presidents from “any” re-election. If that three-letter word isn’t clear enough, Erap’s planned disregard of the basic law of the land should jolt the nation’s memory about what it was like during his watch, when those in power behaved as if they were above the law.

Unless this constitutional question is settled, Erap might not be included in the ballots for 2010. Any vote for him cannot be counted. How then will he re-enter Malacañang — on the wings of a mob?

Several foreign diplomats have told me that the only thing their governments would consider worse than seeing President Arroyo force an extension of her stay in power is the re-election of Erap in 2010. Surely Filipinos deserve someone better than either of these two.

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All these factors do not erase the fact that Erap’s fans, through his six years of detention and conviction, have remained loyal to him, as indicated in surveys.

He remains a strong political force to reckon with, and he has been made stronger by the excesses of the Arroyo administration.

Whether that popularity will translate into votes is another story. Boxing icon Manny Pacquiao was resoundingly trounced in his hometown, although many of those who voted against him still adore him as a boxer.

The Filipino voter has become more discerning. Even superstar Vilma Santos could not save her husband, Ralph Recto, from the administration’s kiss of death in the 2004 Senate race.

If Erap manages to legitimately join the 2010 race and he loses, it will compound his conviction and spell the burial of his political career.

His other option is to preserve his gains and use his popularity to serve as kingmaker, cutting deals in exchange for his support in the elections.

It may now be impossible to field a common opposition candidate, but Erap can still place his bet on the right horse.

Right now he is starting to look too hungry for power — a hunger rivaled only by that of the incumbent. This is a liability given the public mood since the death of Corazon Aquino.

Just as he squandered his immense popularity to do immense good during his presidency, Erap could squander it again in his dream of returning to power.

It’s hard to miss that craving for power. The craving borders on the unhealthy; it has the odor of decay.