Opportunity

The move to convene a constituent assembly (con-ass) is uniting forces opposed to the administration, according to some members of the opposition coalition.

Whether the hopelessly fragmented political opposition seizes the opportunity remains to be seen.

Even key supporters of the administration, among them some Catholic bishops, have added their voices to the chorus of opposition to con-ass.

So far the bishops’ response as a group has been cautious. I suspect the Catholic Bishops’ Conference of the Philippines (CBCP) wouldn’t mind seeing Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo in power for life. While the President doesn’t listen to spiritual advisers when it comes to lying, cheating and stealing, she prays a lot and shares power with the CBCP, giving the Catholic Church the last word on policy-making in matters such as population control. This is in violation of the separation of church and state, which is enshrined in the Constitution, but who said the Charter is inviolable?

The Church is one of the staunchest supporters of the Arroyo administration. How far will it go to prevent a revision of the Constitution that will allow the President to hold on to power beyond June 30, 2010, if her congressional allies can dredge up a legal justification for it? CBCP support will be fine, but the political opposition should be ready to fight its own battles.

Knowing how fragmented the opposition is, Speaker Prospero Nograles Jr. is shrugging off threats of mass protests over con-ass. He has fulfilled his end of the bargain. While his masters assess public reaction, he can rest easy with the thought that the first order of business when the Third Session opens won’t be his ouster as speaker.

Nograles’ support for con-ass has always been tepid; political survival is his principal concern. He would hardly be bothered if con-ass finally unites the fragmented opposition.

The protests against the latest incarnation of Cha-cha provide an opportunity for the opposition to unite in time for the 2010 elections. The opposition should not squander this opportunity, but so far this seems easier said than done.

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The man who is being blamed for the defeat (or cheating, depending on who’s telling the story) of the opposition in 2004 has dropped out of the presidential race early.

Sen. Panfilo Lacson cited the headaches of fund-raising for dropping out. But because his announcement was made a day after his former police aide arrived to testify against him in the murders of publicist Salvador Dacer and his driver Emmanuel Corbito, the inevitable suspicion is that legal problems forced Lacson to drop out.

Lacson announced his decision last Friday in a message played at the start of the second ANC Leadership Forum where he begged off from participating.

Former President Joseph Estrada, one of the guests, could not resist recalling that the divided vote in 2004 — with Lacson refusing to give way to Erap’s bosom buddy Fernando Poe Jr. — worked against the opposition.

This time Erap says he wants a united front for 2010. But watching his body language, listening to his answers at the forum, you can’t help suspecting that what Erap really wants is for the opposition to unite behind his second bid for the presidency.

Erap was fully prepped for the forum, mouthing statistics about his administration’s achievements, even dropping his pretense at “carabao English” that he once told reporters he used to endear him to the masses.

And he needed no special preparation to charm the audience. The guy is a natural entertainer; a facial gesture could get the audience roaring with laughter. Even my former professor, forum co-host Cheche Lazaro, said she was charmed.

Beside Erap, the other guests stood no chance in the charm department. But it remains to be seen whether Pinoy voters will go for charm in May 2010, or for the serious business of governance that is promised by the likes of most of the other presidential aspirants.

Erap cannot easily shake off his plunder conviction, made possible by the painstaking spadework done by excellent legal minds led by Simeon Marcelo.

With about a tenth of the Philippine population overseas, many of them voters, Filipinos may believe that the country needs a competent professional manager, one who understands the demands of globalization and can afford to govern with vision instead of focusing on day-to-day political survival in decision-making.

President Arroyo in fact has that competence, but is saddled with immoderate greed and many other evils. So in addition to competence, voters want the next president to be relatively clean (there are no saints in this country). Does Erap fit the bill?

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Several opposition members are hoping, some of them openly, that Erap will have the grace to step aside and give others a chance.

Erap can instead use his still immense popularity — a political reality that cannot be ignored — to serve as kingmaker and truly work to field a common opposition presidential bet. There is no dull moment around him; Erap’s formidable charm is an asset on the campaign trail.

The nation has had enough political controversies for the past eight years. There should be no legal questions about the legitimacy of the next president.

If Erap runs, as he and his legal advisers believe is possible, and if he wins, which is not impossible in a multi-cornered fight, he will start his term fully distracted by legal challenges to his mandate.

There are certain competent, relatively honest individuals in the opposition camp who will not be saddled by that kind of divisive baggage.

The protest against con-ass is providing an opportunity for the opposition to unite. If the opposition wastes this opportunity, the Arroyo administration is truly blessed.