The key to President GMA's strength

Perhaps it was not noticed at all, but Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay has upset the status quo by joining the strengthening chorus for greater autonomy.

Bicol, Cebu and ARMM have made their own demands to make it possible for them to be truly in charge of their own regions. I do not know how the Makati mayor intends to amend the local government code to give local government units greater autonomy or just how much autonomy he speaks of. Others who are proposing greater autonomy for local government have accepted that would require constitutional amendments. So does oppositionist Binay now accept Charter change?

Those from the Bicol region, for example, have said that for the kind of greater autonomy it seeks, a provision of the Constitution needs to be amended. At the moment, it recognizes only two autonomous regions — ARMM and the Cordillera Administrative Region. They propose an improvement on the current provisions of Section 15, of the article on local government as a way out of the region’s poverty.

I spoke to ULAP president Mandaluyong Mayor Benhur Abalos to ask for his comments on these developments. He said the organization was created to promote, protect and advance the interests of local authorities. If it is to their good, they will go for it when I asked on a greater share for the division of the IRA between national and local governments.

 So on the face of it, it seems opposition and the government have aligned their interests as far as local authorities are concerned. How they maneuver this alignment through political conflicts is another matter.

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Has the opposition finally realized that the key to President GMA’s staying power is her love affair with local authorities? Patricio N. Abinales, in his article, The Philippines: Weak State, Resilient President, says as much. He believes that President GMA’s extraordinary resilience has less to do with “protest fatigue” than it has with the nature of her political coalition.

 Instead, he thinks the opposition will do better to focus more on her relationship with provincial governors, city and town mayors, and village councilors. She has a wide base of support from the masses through local authorities that cannot be undone by surveys or a bad media image. Unfortunately that image is picked up by international media and hurts our drive for investments.

Abinales opines that President GMA has maintained the confidence of local authorities through her adept handling of state funds. It is through that relationship with local authorities that she governs. More recently she increased local government’s IRA by P40-billion for projects to help shield their constituents from the global economic crisis.

With the P40 billion in additional IRA, Mrs. Arroyo said “local governments today are more empowered than at any time in recent history.”

She asked local governments to “band together to shoulder the responsibilities of ensuring the future of your cities and municipalities and therefore of our nation through these challenging times at a vice-mayors’ convention when she announced the additional IRA funds.

Even some of her allies are stomped by her imperviousness that led one of them to call her simply a “very lucky bitch.” He obviously did not look at her devotion to local government. No amount of criticism or opposition attacks can topple her with the backing of local officials and with support of the leadership of the Armed Forces. That was demonstrated in the Hyatt 10 breakaway earlier and the more recent attempted coup at the Peninsula that became a butt of jokes.

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That ability to sustain and strengthen government has had other effects, not least of them being the country’s stability in the face of an international financial upheaval.             

One report predicts the “Philippine economy looks as though it may outperform most of its East and Southeast Asian neighbors, at least for a couple of years.”

These favorable comments on the Philippines have not been highlighted enough because good news does not sell, as one editor said. But it should not stop us from appreciating that the economic management of the country has improved.

“The Philippines expects GDP to grow by 2 to 3 percent this year, a rate superior to anything in East Asia other than China and Vietnam, and a sharp contrast to the negative numbers elsewhere.

This would follow seven years of an average of 4.5 percent growth. That may not sound like much to boast about, particularly in a country with a population increasing by 2 percent a year, but it’s high by local standards and the most sustained improvement since the mid-1970s.”

Three factors contributed to this welcome optimism on the Philippine economy: overseas worker remittances, some $16 billion in 2008, call centers and business process outsourcing, and government spending.

On the government spending some credit must go to the Arroyo government. It has stabilized the country’s fiscal position. It is important to note that this did not happen overnight but over several years. With interest rates down, so also has the cost of debt service. Money became available for badly needed infrastructure, health and education.

In agriculture the prospects are bright with a steady growth of 3 percent a year. Increased investment in this sector has paid off and its produce gained from higher prices.

It may be ironic but the Philippines was branded a laggard in the region as other countries leap-frogged with their export manufacturing. The financial crisis in the developed world changed all that.

But that does not mean that the coast is clear from hereon and that the Philippines will continue on this stable path. Anything can happen — less remittances for one and for another, business outsourcing will not cope with the number of graduates all looking for jobs. We will also have to look at training and jobs for our unskilled labor.

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We are in the same situation as we were in 1992 when President Ramos exited government. Because we were better off than the rest of countries in the region at the height of the Asian financial crisis, we should have been able to capitalize on the advantage. Unfortunately, Ramos leadership and the economy he had put in place very soon unraveled with the election of a less than able movie actor. That is why politics will play an important role if we are to continue on the same path of steady growth. We must be able to find a way to continue with infrastructure programs and manage a stable economy.