Number 44

On Tuesday, November 5, 2008, like every other first Tuesday of November in an election year, either Sen. Barack Obama or Sen. John McCain will become the 44th President of the United States of America. And history will be made for sure. As of this writing, Obama enjoys a slight lead in the polls — 7 points. But if history has taught us anything, it is that anything can happen in an election. The cases of Harry S. Truman and even George W. Bush are prime examples. The whole world will once again be witness to an exercise in democracy by the very people who staunchly defend it, even impose it on other parts of the world. The world is watching.

We, as Filipinos, will also be treated with an education on how an election should be conducted — orderly, fast, and without suspicion. Results come in a day, not weeks or months. Although US elections differ in many ways from ours — such as the importance of the electoral colleges — which may be a bit confusing to the uninitiated — and the fact that the Vice-Presidential candidates are not voted for but come as a package deal with the Presidentiable. This is particularly far from happening in the Philippines where even the bitterest of political enemies may actually share in running the government.

But the outcome may not be a concern of many Filipinos here, especially at a time when everyone seems to be on survival mode on different levels. Some political and economic experts say the Illinois born and Hawaii-exposed Barack Obama would be good for minorities, covering Asians. Illinois has the second largest population of Filipino immigrants in the US. He was many years in Hawaii where Pinoys abound. This makes Obama seem more accessible to the concerns of Pinoys, specifically, and minorities and Asians in general. Obama is also believed to have a less “meddlesome” foreign policy where war is taboo when it is “not necessary”. He rides on the mistakes and unpopularity of the incumbent George ‘Dubya’ Bush. 

On the other hand Prof. Felipe Medalla of the UP says the elderly John McCain might be more open to immigration, to freer trade and outsourcing. But McCain is also irreverent, known to be hot-tempered and, at one time, unpopular even among his partymates. 

The next President of the only superpower in the world today may, in fact, be inheriting a mess. What do the times call for and what would it take to make a difference in a present global condition marred by war and stumped by an economic crisis? Even Republicans share the answer with Medalla who thinks Barack is in the right place, at the right time in history. 

Medalla believes that while McCain may seem the better choice for what benefits the Philippines and Filipinos, the benefits that matter in the longer run and at deeper analysis will be delivered by the even-tempered Obama. His imagery of sobriety amidst chaos, unity amidst discord (within America and among the countries), change as against the status quo, works for his chances at the White House. 

Surveys from the recent past for the US Presidentiables prove that numbers right before elections reflect the outcome. Former Ambassador to the US Ernesto Maceda says that the exit polls right after voting is a lot more accurate. Still, it “ain’t over till it’s over”. With margins of error the only determinant who exactly gets majority of the electoral votes, it all remains to be seen. By the way, I’m for Obama.