No one knows how the tense situation in Burma will unwind, how the protracted standoff between a callous military junta and a people steadfastly demanding democracy will be resolved.
What is clear is that the rest of humanity must now bear a greater burden in helping a people dying to be free.
The street demonstrations in the major cities of this isolated country have died down, forced back by the sheer brutality of the tyrannical regime. Scores have been killed by indiscriminate gunfire. Monks have been arrested and whole monasteries have been emptied by military roundups. Internet connection to the country has been shut down as a desperate regime tries to keep the drama out of the eyes of the world.
There is blood in the streets of Burma (arbitrarily renamed Myanmar by the imperious regime that keeps the country under its heel). Much blood.
The UN Secretary-General dispatched his deputy to Rangoon to discuss with both the military rulers as well as Aung San Suu Kyi, the defiant face of a people resisting repression. He was ceremonially received. The tyrants of Rangoon have no other means of dealing with him.
Whether the urgent diplomatic mission would yield any palpable results on the ground is not evident. What is evident is that international pressure will rapidly increase over the next few days.
All the decent governments of the world have condemned the brutal response of the military tyranny in Rangoon to the peaceful protests that, last week, seemed well on the way to a full-scale popular uprising. In the past, the regime in Rangoon has not been particularly impressed by international condemnation.
The US has threatened economic sanctions. But this diplomatic tool has, where previously applied, proved itself to be more harmful to ordinary citizens than to tyrannical regimes. It certainly did not impress Saddam Hussein when he was in power in Baghdad. It has not impressed the crackpots who rule Tehran.
At any rate, Burma has been largely isolated. Its trade with the US is minimal. The insolence of the tyranny there, we have seen on previous occasions, has been boundless.
Over the weekend, China finally broke its peace on the situation in Burma. Beijing issued a strong statement urging the regime in Rangoon to resolve the political situation there peacefully.
Analysts have said that if there is anything that might have any influence at all on the military rulers of Burma, that will have to be the Chinese government. China is Burma’s most important trading partner. If Beijing joins the US in curtailing trade with Burma, the rulers of Rangoon will be in serious trouble.
However, China has not had a very good record at encouraging other governments to listen to the voice of their people. Beijing is itself under worldwide condemnation for suppressing democratic popular movements and cracking down on organizations it does not control, such as the Falun Gong sect.
Beijing’s message to the rulers of Rangoon brings China’s diplomacy to a new, unfamiliar track. It has used its large reserves to influence trade with other countries. Last year, Beijing called in the presidents of all the African countries and gave each of them $2 billion in assistance.
This is the first time, however, that Beijing is trying to influence a close ally and trading partner in the direction of political openness. It will likely be a clumsy effort, driven largely by global public opinion and a humanitarian consensus among all countries.
If Beijing’s message to Rangoon is to have any real impact, the Chinese leadership must immediately dispatch a senior official to the Burmese capital. That delegation must, privately, deliver a tougher message to a criminal regime that, many years ago, cancelled the outcome of a free elections after Aung San Suu Kyi and her democrats won it decisively.
Japan, Burma’s second most important trading partner, has suspended aid to Rangoon. A Japanese journalist was among those killed last week when the regime’s troops opened fire on a peaceful demonstration. Tokyo, too, must rack up the pressure by sending in a high-level delegation.
The ASEAN countries quite scrupulously try to keep silent about the domestic affairs of its members. At the UN last week, President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo delivered a strong message to Burma, asking the rulers of Rangoon to free Aung San Suu Kyi and respect human rights.
Having so remarkably broken the code of silence of ASEAN governments, Manila cannot stop there. From a moral vantage point, Manila should now rally the other member countries of the regional association to prevent massacres in Burma. The best that could be done is to suspend Burma’s membership until the war waged by the rulers of Rangoon against its own people is convincingly ended.
All over the world, people are organizing public opinion to bear down on the rulers of Rangoon. Norway sponsors a free radio service to the people of Burma manned by Burmese democrats who are there as political refugees.
We are now witness to people power on a global scale, with people marching in most cities of the world to pressure their own governments to deal more decisively with the brutal rulers of Rangoon. This is unprecedented.
It is a movement with moral certainty. It has always been. Many years ago, I participated in the regional effort to help beleaguered fugitive activists flee Burma so that they can continue fighting the good fight.
That good fight is now nearing the endgame. Democracy must triumph.
