GMA candidates vs Erap bets

The results of an internal survey conducted by a pro-administration political leader in Metro Manila were very revealing, to say the least, on the fate that await those candidates running in the May 14 mid-term elections. The survey was done last November and made a random sample of the voting population all over Manila. The capital city is historically known as opposition bailiwick as evidenced by results of every election in the country.

The desired results of the survey was to seek or determine the value of endorsement on candidates by the two most influential political leaders in the country today, that of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and deposed President Joseph Estrada.

Without any mention of particular candidates, the survey asked in Tagalog only two basic questions. The first question asked was "If a candidate is openly endorsed by President Arroyo, will this affect your vote?" The respondents were given three multiple choices: (a) will not affect vote (b) will not vote that Arroyo-endorsed candidate (c) will vote that Arroyo-endorsed candidate. As in similar surveys done in the past, the results of this most recent survey showed consistently that majority replied or 42 percent said it won’t affect their votes. A bigger majority, though, or 47 percent replied they "will not vote that Arroyo-endorsed candidate" while only seven percent replied they "will vote that Arroyo-endorsed candidate."

The same basic question was asked how respondents would vote for Estrada-backed candidates. "If a candidate is openly endorsed by ex-President Estrada will this affect your vote?" A big majority also, or 40 percent replied this would not affect their votes. On the other hand, 20 percent of the respondents replied they would not vote for Estrada-backed candidates and this trend was noted among the A, B and C high income brackets. A little over 26 percent of the respondents replied they would vote for these Estrada-backed candidates.

These results were validated by a completely different set of questions in a survey commissioned reportedly by opposition Senator Panfilo "Ping" Lacson while he was still toying with the idea to run in the mayoralty race in Manila. The survey results purportedly showed 48 percent of respondents replied they would vote a mayoralty candidate who is an opposition leader to President Arroyo. Lacson, however, opted to run for re-election in the Senate due to complications in the required six-month residence prior to the election.

This should put at ease Manila Mayor Lito Atienza who has been grooming his son Ali to succeed him at the City Hall. The Manila Mayor, a very vocal ally of President Arroyo and her administration’s Charter change (Cha-cha) campaign, is also very close to Estrada. A few days before New Year, Atienza floated anew the idea of what he calls as a "Covenant of Unity" among top government officials, church and business leaders. The Covenant calls for the release of Estrada on bail while the latter is awaiting resolution of his plunder case at the Sandiganbayan.

Atienza’s fellow Liberal Party (LP) partymate, presidential chief of staff Michael Defensor, who is definitely running as one of the administration’s senatorial candidates in the coming elections, picked it up from there and reiterated his previous advocacy to allow Estrada’s release on recognizance.

Like Atienza, Defensor also has the advantage of being close to both Mrs. Arroyo and Estrada. In rough political translation in Tagalog, they are "namamangka sa dalawang ilog." In finer language, they have the best of both worlds. We do not want to cast aspersion on the sincerity of their motives. But many other politicians also running in the coming elections from both sides of the fence similarly now agree to this proposal.

As titular head of the United Opposition (UNO), Estrada’s sentiments are being considered in the selection of their 12-man senatorial lineup vis a vis the Arroyo administration’s Senate slate. He predicts the UNO Senate slate would sweep the Arroyo-backed senatorial team. Thus, the coming May electoral race is being billed by political pundits as a proxy contest between Mrs. Arroyo and Estrada.

Estrada raised the ante and is bringing this to the next level. He reiterated his challenge to the President to call for "snap presidential elections" to be held simultaneously in May. Taking note of Mrs. Arroyo’s negative approval ratings in the past two years up to now, Estrada challenged her anew to a "one-on-one" contest.

"Let’s have snap elections. I would not even campaign. I would just stay here detained in Tanay and let my senatorial candidates to campaign for me," Estrada said.

Estrada exhorted her to seriously consider this challenge and not just dismiss it nonchalantly and hide behind constitutional and legal gobbledygooks.

"It would be an opportunity for her to settle once and for all these questions on her legitimacy in office. How can she govern if she does not have the support of the majority. She’s been living in fear all these times," Estrada pointed out. "If she beats me, I will recognize her. I will support her all the way and even on bended knees," Estrada vowed.

Estrada believed he still has a very solid constituency of voters and he could get as much as 25 percent additional votes to ensure a candidate’s winning chances. He has basis in saying this and pointed to his wife, former First Lady, Loi Ejercito being elected in the Senate in May 2001, as well as their son, Senator Jinggoy Estrada winning as Senator in the May 2004 election. He wisecracked that he would charge fees to candidates who wish to get his endorsement. "Sisingilin ko pa sila pag itinaas ko kamay nila," he chortled.

So I think Defensor’s rabble rousing his proposed "unity ticket" in the coming Senatorial contest is dead on its tracks even before it could take off. The wounds are too deep and painful, especially for the Estrada camp. When I personally asked Estrada about this, he retorted: "Unity ticket, ano yun?" He may like Defensor very much as a friend, but Estrada admitted he could not support the candidacy of the young Arroyo Cabinet official. According to surveys, Estrada noted, Defensor’s name is way below the "top 20" choices.

Defensor cited Estrada’s possible court release on recognizance is in line with the national reconciliation offer of President Arroyo under her administration’s agenda to "heal the wounds of EDSA-1, EDSA-2 and EDSA-3." But some of his fellow Cabinet officials even shot this down on him. So what gives?

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